000
AXNT20 KNHC 231632
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Aug 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1632 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 38W, from 
20N southward, moving westward at around 15 knots. Any nearby 
convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section 
below. 

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 77.5W, from 
22N southward, moving westward at 15 knots to 20 knots. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 
16N to 20N between 75W and 82W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 20N17W to
16N27W to 12.5N49W. The ITCZ continues from 12.5N49W to 12N61W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 
26W and 33W, and from 09N to 11.5N between 38W and 46W and 
between 51W and 59W.. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends over the NE Gulf. South of the 
aforementioned stationary front a weak surface trough extends 
southwestwards to the central Gulf. Scattered moderate 
convection is depicted east of 86.5W is association with these 
features. Elsewhere, high pressure is prevailing. Moderate to 
locally fresh winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, are N of the stationary 
front over the NE Gulf. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 
ft, prevail elsewhere. 

For the forecast, an upper disturbance will support scattered 
showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf over the next 
couple of days. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will 
maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are 
expected through early next week across the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the TROPICAL WAVES section above for information 
regarding convection in the Caribbean Sea. 

Moderate to locally fresh E winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are noted 
over the central and eastern Caribbean. Gentle to moderate NE to 
E winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, prevail over the western Caribbean. 

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will 
pulse off the southern coast of Hispaniola into mid week. 
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will 
persist.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough extends from near 31N78W southwestward to NE Florida. 
Shattered moderate convection is depicted north of 29N west of 
78W. A second surface trough is producing scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection from 21.5N to 29N between 74W and SE 
Florida. Moderate to fresh SW winds with locally strong winds, 
and seas of 5-7 ft are found around the convection associated 
with the second trough. High pressure prevails elsewhere over 
the waters N of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 
ft, prevail elsewhere over the waters N of 20N. S of 20N, mainly 
gentle winds prevail, reaching moderate speeds east of the 
Windward Islands. Seas over the waters S of 20N are in the 5-6 
ft range.  

For the forecast W of 55W, expect moderate to fresh SW winds off 
northeast Florida today ahead of a weak cold front. The front 
will briefly stall tonight and weaken through mid week. Gentle 
to moderate winds will generally prevail elsewhere.

$$
KRV