000
AXNT20 KNHC 232315
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Aug 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 38W, from 
20N southward, moving westward at around 15 knots. Convection is
limited near the wave axis.

The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 82W, from 21N 
southward, moving westward at 15 to 20 knots. The wave is
enhancing convection over the NW Caribbean, the Cayman Islands 
and parts of Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast 
of Mauritania near 20N16W, then continues SW to near 15N30W to 
13N45W. The ITCZ extends from 13N51W to 12N60W. A trough is 
analyzed within the monsoon trough/ITCZ and runs from 15N46W to 
10N51W. Scattered showers are near the trough axis. No deep 
convection is noted elsewhere.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends across N Florida and the NE Gulf to 
near SE Louisiana. A few showers and thunderstorms are along the
frontal boundary. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
are noted north of the front while moderate N winds are south of
the front to about 28N. A surface trough is ahead of the front 
and extends from north-central Florida to the central Gulf near 
25N90W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are on either side of
the trough. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing
mainly light to gentle winds with seas of 1 to 3 ft. Aloft, the 
development of a cut-off low in the eastern Gulf of Mexico 
combined with the available moisture and diurnal heating will 
continue to enhance the development of shower and thunderstorms 
over parts of Florida. 

For the forecast, an upper disturbance will support scattered 
showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf over the next 
couple of days. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will maintain
gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected 
through early next week across the Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean. Please refer to 
the Tropical Waves section for more details. 

High pressure NE of the area supports moderate to locally fresh 
trade winds, with seas generally in the 4 to 6 ft range over the
east and central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds, 
and seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail over the western Caribbean. Showers
and thunderstorms are observed over the Greater Antilles, the NW
Caribbean and parts of northern Central America. A tropical 
wave, combined with favorable conditions aloft, is helping to 
induce this convective activity. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse off
the southern coast of Hispaniola into mid week. Elsewhere, 
gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N78W southwestward to central
Florida into the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are associated with this trough affecting much of 
the waters N of 22N and W of 70W. The most recent scatterometer 
data showed strong winds over parts of the central and NW 
Bahamas and surrounding waters, likely related to the convective 
activity there. Elsewhere W of 70W, gentle to moderate winds 
prevail, with seas of 4 to 6 ft E of the Bahamas, higher near 
thunderstorms. High pressure dominates the remainder of the 
Atlantic forecast region. An upper-level low located N of area 
32N42W is generating some shower activity overe the far NE waters.
A surface trough, likely associate with this system aloft, extends
from 31N36W to 24N38W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are
on either side of the trough axis with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Fresh 
to strong winds are also noted between the Canary Islands and 
downwind to near 22N where seas are 6 to 8 ft. These winds are 
the result of the pressure gradient between high pressure over 
the Atlantic and lower pressure over NW Africa. Elsewhere N of 
20N, gentle to moderate winds are noted while light to gentle 
winds prevail across the tropical Atlantic. Seas are generally 4 
to 7 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and thunderstorms 
will persist off northeast Florida through Sat along a trough and
a stationary front lingering over the region. Fresh to strong 
winds will pulse north of Hispaniola through Sat. Otherwise, 
moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas will 
continue over the next few days. 

$$
GR