000
AXNT20 KNHC 240534
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat Aug 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0520 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, from 20N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to
locally strong is from 08N to 13N between 37W and 43W, close to
the monsoon trough and the ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 22N 
southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters is within
480 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 360 nm to the
west of the tropical wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains area of 
Senegal that is just to the south of Gambia, to 13N24W, to 
12N38W. The ITCZ continues from 12N38W, to 13N46W 10N53W 09N56W. 
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is inland in Africa 
from 11N to 17N between 12W and 16W. Isolated moderate to locally 
strong is from 04N to 17N from 60W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, for 700 mb, and the
satellite imagery, are showing cyclonic wind flow in many parts of
the area. The cyclonic wind flow at many levels is concentrated
comparatively more in the eastern half of the Gulf. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is in the NE corner of the
area, from 27N northward from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate is
in many other parts of the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface
trough is along 90W/92W from 24N to 27N.

Fresh cyclonic wind flow is from 28N northward from 93W eastward.
Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf. Slight
seas are everywhere in the Gulf.

An upper disturbance will support scattered showers and 
thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf over the next couple of 
days. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle to 
locally moderate winds and slight through early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 80W eastward. Mostly moderate
to some fresh NE winds are from 16N northward from 80W westward 
in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Gentle winds are in the 
remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas are in much of the 
Caribbean Sea. Some exceptions are for slight seas from 14N 
southward from 70W eastward; and from 13N southward between 70W 
and 80W. Slight to moderate seas are from Belize northward from 
80W westward. Slight seas are from Belize southward from 80W 
westward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 75W, beyond Panama and
Costa Rica, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to 
numerous strong is inland from 07N to 11N between Lake Maracaibo 
in NW Venezuela and the NW coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate 
to widely scattered strong is from 02N to 08N between 75W and 80W.

Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the southern coast
of Hispaniola into mid week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds 
and moderate seas will persist. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The GFS model, for 500 mb and for 700 mb, shows cyclonic wind flow
between the Bahamas and Florida. A surface trough is along 78W/80W
from Cuba to 29N. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is 
from 20N in the NW Caribbean Sea, to Cuba, to the southernmost 
point of Andros Island in the Bahamas between 76W and 81W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 45 nm on either 
side of 26N71W 28N73W 31N74W. Isolated moderate to locally strong
is from the Straits of Florida and the Florida Keys to 26N in
Florida between 80W and 83W.

A surface trough is along 30N37W 25N41W 21N41W. Precipitation:
broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are
within 500 nm to the east of the surface trough, and within 240 nm
to the west of the surface trough.

The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, for 700 mb, and the
satellite imagery, are showing cyclonic wind flow and isolated
moderate precipitation, from 10N northward between 40W and 60W. 

Mostly moderate, to some near-rough seas, are from 22N northward
from 50W eastward, and from 15N to 20N from 36W eastward. Moderate
seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong NE
winds are: from 30N northward from 13W eastward, and from 21N to 
28N between 18W and 24W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are elsewhere
from 15N northward from 65W eastward. Fresh SE winds are from 03N
southward between 35W and 50W. Fresh southerly winds are from
04N08W-the Equator along 22W eastward. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds are from Hispaniola to the SE Bahamas between 71W and the 
Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE winds are from 26N
southward from 69W westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the
remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist off northeast 
Florida through Sat along a trough lingering over the region. 
Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola through Sat. 
Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and moderate 
seas will continue over the next few days. 

$$
mt/al