000 AXNT20 KNHC 240901 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Aug 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 40W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Any nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 84W, from 22N southward, moving westward at 15 knots knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave axis over the NW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 13N16W to 12N49W. The ITCZ continues from 12N49W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 18N E of 20W, and from 09N to 11N between 38W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Gulf of Mexico producing mainly gentle winds. Locally moderate winds are noted over the far northern Gulf, and locally fresh winds are west of the Yucatan peninsula. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the far northern Gulf, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, an upper disturbance will support scattered showers and thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf over the next couple of days. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean, with gentle winds over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 3-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the southern coast of Hispaniola into mid week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends across the Atlantic waters east of the Florida peninsula. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is east of the trough axis across the central and northern Bahamas. A second trough is noted from 31N41W to 21N43W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the trough. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft prevail across much of the tropical and subtropical waters N of 20N. S of 20N, light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft are noted. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola today. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas will continue over the next few days. $$ AL