000 AXNT20 KNHC 241757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Aug 24 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 20N southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. No significant convection is observed due to much drier air at the low to mid levels. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from the Yucatan Channel southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacific. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted at the northwestern Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast just south of Dakar, extends west-southwestward to 12N30W then turns westward to 12N43W. An ITCZ continues westward from 12N43W to just east of Trinidad and Tobago at 11N60W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up near and south of the trough from 06N to 12N between the central Africa coast and 25W. Similar convection is also occurring up to 80 nm along either side of the ITCZ west of 57W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front runs westward from the Florida Big Bend area to beyond New Orleans, Louisiana. Interacting with an upper-level low near 27N88W, scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms are found across the northeastern Gulf. An upper-level trough reaches southwestward from this low to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Isolated thunderstorms are present across the southern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate easterly winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft exist at the northern Gulf north of 28N. Mostly gentle ENE to SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger for the next couple of days. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas through the middle of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An Atlantic Ridge to the north near 28N continue to support trade winds across much of the basin. Convergent trades are generating scattered moderate convection central basin north of 14N, including waters near Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Moderate with locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident at the central basin. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted at the Gulf of Honduras and waters near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle with locally moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds will occur off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia into Sun. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue to pulse off the southern coast of Hispaniola through the middle of next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Aided by abundant tropical moisture, a robust surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 22N between 73W and the Florida coast, including the central and northwest Bahamas. Two more robust surface troughs are triggering scattered moderate convection from 21N to 25N between 54W and 61W, and from 21N to 25N between 45W and 48W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. An Atlantic Ridge extends southwestward from a 1025 mb high at the north Atlantic near 36N55W across 31N62W to near the southeast Bahamas. This feature is sustaining gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft north of 20N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate of fresh with locally strong NNE to NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas dominate north of 18N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. Farther south including waters near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate N to NE winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft are seen from 10N to 18N between the central Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle with locally moderate N to E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate northeasterly swell exist. Gentle with locally moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola into Sun. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas will continue through the middle of next week. $$ Chan