000 AXNT20 KNHC 242314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Aug 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 42W from 07N-20N, and moving westward around 5-10 kt. No significant convection is observed due to much drier air at the low to mid levels. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W from the Yucatan Channel southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacific. The wave is moving westward around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Gulf of Honduras and Yucatan Channel mainly S of 23N and W of 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to 12N43W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 12N61W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the monsoon trough and E of 31W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front runs westward from the Florida Big Bend area to beyond New Orleans, Louisiana. An upper level low is centered near 27N88W. Upper level diffluence is enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms S of 25N between 82W and 89W. Gentle to moderate easterly winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft exist at the northern Gulf north of 28N. Mostly gentle ENE to SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the upper-level disturbance will continue to support scattered moderate to strong convection across the eastern Gulf over the next couple of days. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be possible near convection. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas through the middle of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. The Atlantic Ridge north of the area continues to support trade winds across much of the basin. Convergent trades are generating scattered moderate convection central basin north of 14N, including waters near Jamaica and eastern Cuba. Moderate with locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident at the central basin. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted at the Gulf of Honduras and waters near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E winds will occur off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia through Sun. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will continue to pulse off the coast of Hispaniola through the middle of next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Aided by abundant tropical moisture, a surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 26N and W of 73W. To the E, another surface trough along 59W is triggering scattered moderate convection from 20N to 26N between 55W and 63W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere across the basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail north of 20N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, fresh to strong NNE to NE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas dominate north of 18N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. Farther south including waters near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate N to NE winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted from 10N to 18N between the central Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle with locally moderate N to E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate northeasterly swell exist. Gentle with locally moderate southerly and monsoonal westerly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, an upper-level disturbance will support scattered moderate to strong convection over the Bahamas over the next couple of days. Gusty winds and rough seas will be possible near convection. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola through Sun. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas will continue through the middle of next week. $$ ERA