000 AXNT20 KNHC 250526 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Aug 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0510 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W/43W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: any nearby convective precipitation also is close to the monsoon trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W/88W, from 22N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters is within 820 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 420 nm to the west of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal that is near 14N17W, to 10N30W 09N45W. The ITCZ continues from 09N45W, to 12N53W, to 11N58W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm to 480 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 36W eastward; and it is within 180 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/the ITCZ from 36W westward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, for 700 mb, and the satellite imagery, are showing that cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation, cover the entire area. A surface trough is from 26N to the coast of Louisiana between 89W and 91W. Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, are everywhere. An upper-level disturbance will support scattered moderate to locally strong convection across the northern and eastern Gulf over the next couple of days. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be possible near convection. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas through the middle of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh NE winds are from nearly everywhere from 80W eastward. An exception is for slight winds from 15N southward from 76W westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Slight seas are from 15N southward from 70W eastward; and from 80W westward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia, beyond Panama and Costa Rica, into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters is from 12N southward from 70W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 25/0000 UTC, are: 0.17 in Guadeloupe. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Moderate to locally fresh E winds will occur off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia through Sun. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the coast of Hispaniola through the middle of next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist through next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is between the NW Bahamas and Florida. The GFS model for 500 mb shows an inverted trough in the same area. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate, are from 70W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation, are from 16N northward between 47W and the Bahamas. One surface trough is from 20N to 30N between 46W and 50W. A second surface trough is is from 19N to 25N between 59W and 63W. Fresh to strong N winds are from 17N to 24N from 21W eastward. Fresh NE winds are elsewhere from 16N northward from 35W eastward. Fresh easterly winds are from 20N northward between 35W and 45W. Fresh NE winds are from 20N to 26N between 54W and 72W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are from 05N southward between 10W and 17W. Fresh southerly winds are elsewhere from 10N14W 04N26W 02N39W 08N55W southward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to rough seas are from 19N to 27N from 34W eastward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. An upper-level disturbance will support scattered moderate to locally strong convection over the Bahamas over the next couple of days. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be possible near convection. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola through Sun. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas will continue through the middle of next week. $$ mt/al