000 AXNT20 KNHC 251738 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Aug 25 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 20N southward, and moving westward around 10 knots. No significant convection is seen as the wave is embedded within a very dry low to mid-level air mass. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast just north of Nouakchott, curves southwestward to 08N22W then turns westward to 08N36W. An ITCZ continues northwestward from 08N36W to 11N52W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is seen near and south of the trough from 06N to 11N between the central Africa coast and 26W. Scattered moderate convection is also present farther west from 03N to 07N between 26W and 35W, and up to 110 nm along either side of the ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An elongated upper-level low near 25N93W along with its related surface trough are producing scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms at the north-central Gulf, south of Louisiana and eastern Texas. Isolated thunderstorms are found at the central Gulf. The southwestern end of a surface trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Florida Straits, including the Florida Keys. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft exist across the northern Gulf, north of 28N. Mainly gentle E to SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the upper low and related surface trough will support scattered moderate to locally strong convection across the northern and eastern Gulf over the next couple of days. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be possible near convection. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas through Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is combined with modest divergent flow aloft to produce scattered moderate convection east of the Yucatan Peninsula, including the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated thunderstorms are found farther south near the coastal border of Honduras and Nicaragua. An upper-level low near 14N72W is triggering isolated thunderstorms south and southeast of Jamaica. Convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the southeastern basin, including the southern Windward Islands, and Trinidad and Tobago. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate trades with seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the central basin. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are found near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate E to SE trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the coast of Hispaniola through Thu. Locally fresh E to NE winds will be possible off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia by the middle of this week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough runs northeastward from north of the Dominican Republic through an upper low near 24N64W to beyond 31N at 59W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near these features from 21N to 28N between 58W and 68W. At the central Atlantic, a surface trough is creating similar convection from 22N to 28N between 51W and 54W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1027 mb Azores High across 31N55W to near the northwest Bahamas. This feature is providing gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas north of 20N between 35W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are evident north of 19N between the northwest Africa coast and 35W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NW to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate from 10N to 19N between the central Africa coast and 35W. For the Tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, light to gentle with locally moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist. Farther south from the Equator to 10N between 40W and 60W/South America coast, gentle SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells are present. Moderate to fresh southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in mixed large swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned upper-level features will support scattered moderate to locally strong convection over the Bahamas over the next couple of days. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be possible near convection. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas will continue through Thu. $$ Chan