000 AXNT20 KNHC 252315 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Aug 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W from 20N southward, and moving westward around 5-10 kt. No significant convection is noted as the wave is embedded within a very dry low to mid-level air mass. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W to 09N23W to 12N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm S of the trough. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean waters near Panama and northwestern Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An elongated upper-level low is reflected at the surface as a trough, that extends from 30N92W to 25N95W. Scattered showers are noted across the NW Gulf waters N of 24N and W of 90W. To the east, a surface trough extends across southern Florida, enhancing convection E of 83W. The diurnal thermal trough has developed across the Yucatan peninsula and is moving W towards the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the Yucatan peninsula. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft exist across the northern Gulf, north of 28N. Gentle E to SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the upper-level disturbance will support scattered moderate to locally strong convection across the northern and eastern Gulf through Mon. Gusty winds and locally rough seas will be possible near convection. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas through this week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is combined with modest divergent flow aloft to produce scattered moderate convection east of the Yucatan Peninsula, including the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered thunderstorms are found farther south near the coastal border of Honduras and Nicaragua. Convergent trade winds are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the southeastern basin, including the southern Windward Islands, and Trinidad and Tobago. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate trades with seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the central basin. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are found near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate E to SE trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the coast of Hispaniola through much of this week. Locally fresh E to NE winds will be possible off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia by Wed. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details o the tropical wave moving across the basin. A stationary front extends N of the area along 33N. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the W Atlantic mainly N of 30N and W of 70W. To the east, three surface troughs are analyzed over the central Atlantic along 50W, 62W and 68W and N of 20N with little to no convection associated to them. Surface ridging prevail across the remainder of the basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are north of 20N between 35W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are evident north of 19N between the northwest Africa coast and 35W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate NW to NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate from 10N to 19N between the central Africa coast and 35W. For the Tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist. Farther south from the Equator to 10N between 40W and 60W/South America coast, gentle SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells are present. Moderate to fresh southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in mixed large swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, an upper-level disturbance over the W Atlantic will support scattered moderate convection over the Bahamas and off the coast of Florida through early week. Gusty winds and rough seas will be possible near convection. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas will continue through this week. $$ ERA