000 AXNT20 KNHC 261805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Aug 26 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 24W from 19N southward across the Cabo Verde Islands, and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 20W and 30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 20N southward, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Very dry air at low to mid levels are preventing significant convection near this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic just south of the Western Sahara/Mauritanian coastal border, then runs southwestward across 09N35W to 07N52W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 12N between 30W and 40W, and from 05N to 08N between 40W and 51W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is producing numerous showers and isolated strong thunderstorms at the Caribbean waters off northwestern Colombia. Isolated thunderstorms are found farther west near Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A robust upper-level low and its related surface trough near the Louisiana and Texas coast are triggering scattered showers and strong thunderstorms at the northwestern Gulf. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring farther east at the central and southwestern Gulf. Another surface trough is causing isolated thunderstorms at the northeastern and southeastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are present across the eastern and central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail for the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the upper low will continue to support scattered moderate to locally strong convection across the northern and eastern Gulf today. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas through this week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough runs southward from the Yucatan Channel to northern Honduras. Aided by divergent flow aloft, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident at the northwestern Basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Isolated thunderstorms are seen off the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Convergent trades are causing similar conditions at the northeastern basin. Moderate to locally fresh E to ESE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are noted at the central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft exist at the Gulf of Honduras and near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the coast of Hispaniola through much of this week. Locally fresh E to NE winds are possible off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia starting Tue night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough extends southward from the mid latitudes to near 31N72W, then turns southward to near Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is found near this feature north of 28N between 70W and 76W, and near the central and southeast Bahamas. At the central Atlantic, a surface trough is generating widely scattered moderate convection north of 23N between 51W and 56W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A Bermuda-Azores High continues to support gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas north of 20N between 25W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft dominate north of 22N between the northwest Africa coast and 25W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle with locally moderate SW to NW to N winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells exist from 10N to 22N between the central Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ESE trades with 4 to 7 ft seas are present. Farther south from the Equator to 10N between 40W, light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds with seas at 4 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells are evident. Moderate to fresh southerly winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned upper-level trough will support scattered moderate to locally strong convection over the Bahamas and off the coast of Florida today. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and moderate seas will continue through this week. $$ Chan