000 AXNT20 KNHC 262332 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Aug 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 25W from 19N southward moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 20W and 30W. A second tropical wave is along 49W from 20N southward, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Western Sahara/ Mauritanian coastal border, then runs southwestward across 10N31W to 07N45W to 10N55W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 10N between 30W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A robust upper-level low spinning over eastern Texas is triggering scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the NW Gulf. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms are occurring elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are present across the eastern and central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft prevail over the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, an upper-level disturbance will support scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern and eastern Gulf this evening. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle winds and slight seas through the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough runs southward from the Yucatan Channel to northern Honduras. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the trough axis. Gentle to moderate N winds are W of the trough axis while light to gentle winds are noted E of it. An area of showers and thunderstorms is over the central Caribbean, affecting mainly the waters S of 16N between 72W and 76W. This convective activity extends over northern Colombia and NW Venezuela, includingthe Guajira Peninsula and Lake Maracaibo. An inverted upper-level trough, that extends from Hispaniola to the SW Caribbean is helping to induce this convection. A diffluent pattern aloft supports showers and thunderstorms over Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Moderate to locally fresh trades with 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the east and central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft exist at the Gulf of Honduras and near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the coast of Hispaniola through the week. Locally fresh NE to E winds are possible off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia starting Tue. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough extends southward from near 31N65W to Hispaniola. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near this feature, but mainly north of 29N between 67W and 74W. At the central Atlantic, a surface trough, that runs from 31N53W to 22N57W is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. High pressure located mid-way between the Azores and the Madeira Islands dominates the Atlantic forecast area. Under the influence of this system, mainly gentle to moderate winds are observed with seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 20N between 25W and the Florida coast. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft dominate the waters north of 22N between the northwest Africa coast and 25W. Winds increase to fresh to strong speeds S of the monsoon trough to the Equator between 20W and 35W where seas are 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned upper-level disturbance will support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Bahamas and off the coast of Florida this evening. Otherwise, moderate E to NE winds and moderate seas will continue through this week. Winds may pulse to locally fresh each night offshore Hispaniola. $$ GR