000 AXNT20 KNHC 270436 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Aug 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0436 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 26W from 19.5N southward moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. No significant convection is depicted with this wave at this time. A second tropical wave is along 51W from 20N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is depicted from 06N to 20N between 49W and 53.5W ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Western Sahara/ Mauritanian coastal border, then runs southwestward across 09N33W to 11N40W to 09N56W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 14N between 29W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A robust upper-level low spinning over eastern Texas is triggering scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the NW Gulf. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms are occurring across the eastern Gulf waters in association with surface trough over the area. Outside of convection, light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, an upper-level disturbance will support scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Gulf tonight. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle winds and slight seas through the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough supports showers and thunderstorms over Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. An area of showers and thunderstorms is over the central Caribbean, affecting mainly the waters S of 17N between 71W and 77W. An inverted upper-level trough, that extends from Hispaniola to the SW Caribbean is helping to induce this convection. The eastern end of the Pacific Monsoon Trough is producing scattered moderate convection over the SW Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh E winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are noted over the east and central Caribbean. Elsewhere, gentle or weaker winds and seas 2 to 4 ft prevail. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the coast of Hispaniola through the week. Locally fresh E to NE winds are possible off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia starting Tue. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level trough extends southward from near 31N65W to Hispaniola. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found near this feature, but mainly north of 26N between 67W and 73W. At the central Atlantic, a surface trough, that runs from 31N55W to 21N58W is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. A 1026 high pressure located near 39N44W dominates the Atlantic forecast area. Under the influence of this system, mainly gentle to moderate winds are observed with seas of 4 to 5 ft north of 20N between 50W and the Florida coast. Near the central Atlantic north of 12N and the Canary Islands north of 23N, moderate to fresh NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are found S of the monsoon trough to the Equator between 17W and 40W where seas are 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, moderate E to NE winds and moderate seas will prevail through this week. Winds may pulse to locally fresh each night offshore Hispaniola. $$ KRV