000 AXNT20 KNHC 271647 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Aug 27 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W from 06N to 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Any nearby convection is noted in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 54W from 06.5N to 20N, and moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection associated with this wave is observed from 11N to 22N between 52W and 58W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 23N16W to 12N25W to 12N46W. The ITCZ then continues from 12N46W to near 13N52.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 14N between 26N and 51W. A portion of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends from near the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica eastward into the Caribbean near 12N77W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed in the northeastern Gulf from near 28N85W northeastward into the Big Bend of Florida. Another surface trough extends from the eastern Bay of Campeche into the south-central Gulf. Both of these troughs, as well as convergent surface winds across much of the Gulf, are leading to the development of widely scattered moderate convection across much of the basin. Locally strong convection is noted over the southwest Bay of Campeche and also about 150 nm north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Outside of convection, broad ridging and a weak pressure gradient are favoring light to gentle E winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across much of the basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle winds and slight seas into the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is analyzed from the southwestern tip of Haiti across the Windward Passage and eastern Cuba. This is leading to scattered moderate convection across portions of the central Caribbean generally north of 13N between 69W and 80W. The combination of the Panama Low and the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough are leading to the development of scattered moderate convection over the far SW Caribbean near the coast of Costa Rica. Otherwise, gentle to moderate E to NE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail over the central Caribbean. Light to gentle E to NE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the coast of Hispaniola into the weekend. Locally fresh E to NE winds are also possible off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from NE Florida northeastward to near 30N80W, and is generating scattered moderate convection along and within 80 nm south of the trough. Another surface trough is analyzed from eastern Cuba northward into the central Bahamas, aiding in the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the surface trough. An upper-level trough is interacting with two other surface troughs over the central to western Atlantic, one from near 20N62W to 27N59W, and the other from 28N73W to 30N70W. The trough from 20N62W to 27N59W is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms generally north of 23N between 52W and 61W. The trough from 28N73W to 30N70W is causing the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms generally north of 27N between 67W and 74W. Outside of convection, the Azores high is favoring gentle to moderate E to NE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft across much of the Atlantic east of 55W. To the west of 55W, winds are generally light to gentle and seas are 3 to 5 ft. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicated a small area of moderate to fresh cyclonic winds near 26N60W, generally from 24N to 27N between 57W and 61W. An area of gentle to moderate, locally fresh S to SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft is analyzed from the Equator to about 06.5N, generally between 24W and 40W. For the forecast W of 55W, gentle to moderate E to NE winds and moderate seas will prevail through the week. Winds are likely pulse to locally fresh each night offshore Hispaniola. $$ Adams