000 AXNT20 KNHC 272310 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Aug 28 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 30W from 07N to 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 07N to 12N between 28W and 34W. A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Its axis is along 56W S of 20N to near the coast of Suriname, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are observed near the northern end of the wave axis from 14N to 22N between 55W and 60W. Moisture associated with this wave will reach the Lesser Antilles tonight into Wed, and the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by Wed afternoon and evening bringing an increase in showers and thunderstorms. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W, then continues SW to near 12N30W, then westward to near 12N44W. The ITCZ extends from 12N44W to 14N52W. A large cluster of moderate to strong convection is approaching the W coast of Africa and it is currently affecting from Liberia to Guinea between 10W and 14W. This convective activity could be ahead of the next tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 13N between 34W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed in the NE Gulf and extends from the Florida Panhandle to near 26N88W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are related to the trough. An upper-level low spinning over eastern Texas and NE Mexico continues to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the western Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms are also flared-up over Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula under a diffluent pattern aloft. Light to gentle winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf waters. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle winds and slight seas through the weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An area of showers and thunderstorms is over the north-central Caribbean and parts of the NW Caribbean, particularly from 15N to 20N between 72W and 83W. This convective activity is affecting parts of Haiti, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. A diffluent pattern aloft supports this convection. Showers and thunderstorms are also noted over the remainder of the Greater Antilles. Moderate to locally fresh winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are noted south of Hispaniola to about 15N. Elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean, gentle to moderate trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft exist in the NW Caribbean and near Costa Rica and Panama. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the coast of Hispaniola into the weekend. Locally fresh NE to to E winds will pulse nightly off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia. A tropical wave may impact Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure of 1021 mb located N of area near 33N74W extends a ridge over the western Atlantic and the Bahamas. Farther E, a weak 1017 mb low pressure is analyzed near 26N60W. This system is generating a small area of showers and thunderstorms. Scatterometer data show fresh to strong winds in association with this system. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1027 mb high pressure located W of the Azores near 38N39W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are observed elsewhere across the Atlantic waters with seas of 2 to 4 ft W of 60W and 4 to 7 ft E of 60W. For the forecast W of 55W, gentle to moderate E to NE winds and moderate seas will prevail into the weekend. Winds will pulse to locally fresh each night offshore Hispaniola. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form in the central portion of the Tropical Atlantic in a few days. Thereafter, environmental conditions appear generally favorable for some slow development of this system this weekend into early next week as it moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 kt. Currently, this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. $$ GR