000
AXNT20 KNHC 281658
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Wed Aug 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W from 07N to 20N, moving 
westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the 
monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W and passing through the
Lesser Antilles, from 20N southward, moving westward at around 10 
kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 13N to 23N
between 60W and 65W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast 
of Senegal near 14N16.5W and continues WSW to near 11N47W. The 
ITCZ continues from 11N47W to 12N56W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted generally along and within 500 nm south of the
monsoon trough and ITCZ. Recent infrared satellite imagery 
indicates an area of strong convection near the African coast, 
expanding across the waters east of 18W between 07N and 14N.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is analyzed over the eastern Gulf from near
24N83W to near the Big Bend of Florida. Another diurnal surface
trough is analyzed over the southern Bay of Campeche. To the west
of this trough, a weak 1017 surface high is analyzed. Convergent 
surface winds around each of these features, along with an upper 
low over south-central Texas, are all leading to the development 
of scattered moderate, isolated strong convection across much of 
the basin. Aside from convection, a weak pressure gradient is 
supporting light to gentle winds across much of the Gulf of 
Mexico, except reaching moderate speeds over the SE Gulf. Seas are
in the 1-3 ft range. 

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle 
winds and slight seas through the remainder of the week and 
upcoming weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms 
over are over most of the basin. Frequent lightning and heavy 
rainfall restricting visibility is possible with this activity.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information
on convection in the eastern Caribbean. 

Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection over much of
the NW Caribbean north of 15N and west of 76W. Another area of
scattered moderate convection is observed over the southwest
Caribbean in the vicinity of both the Panama Low and the eastern
extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. Outside of
convection, gentle to moderate E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft
prevail across the central Caribbean. For the eastern and NW
Caribbean, light to gentle E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are
observed.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will 
pulse off the coast of Hispaniola into the weekend. Locally fresh 
E to NE winds will pulse nightly off the coast of Venezuela and 
Colombia. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on
convection near and north of the Virgin Islands.

A surface trough extends from 23N64W to 28N69W, with a 1018 mb 
low pressure along the trough axis near 28N69W. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 100 nm N of 
the low center. A second surface trough extends from 25N71W to 
30N67W. Little to no shower or convective activity is noted near
this trough. Otherwise, the Bermuda-Azores high continues to
dominate the basin. Gentle to moderate E to NE winds, and seas of
3-6 ft, prevail over much of the Atlantic. 

For the forecast W of 55W, gentle to moderate E to NE winds and 
moderate seas will prevail into the weekend. Winds will pulse to 
locally fresh each night offshore Hispaniola. 

$$
Adams