000 AXNT20 KNHC 282307 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Aug 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 35W from 07N to 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Convection is now limited near the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 61W and extends south into NE Venezuela. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is helping to induce showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Leeward Islands, NE Venezuela and northern Guyana. The tropical wave will affect the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Thu. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues westward to 13N35W to 12N49W. The ITCZ extends from 12N49W to 11N60W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are moving off the W coast of Africa,and are currently affecting from northern Liberia to Senegal and the regional waters from 08N to 14N E of 20W to the coast of Africa. This convective activity could be ahead of the next tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 10N between 40W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted over the NW Gulf and the State of Florida while scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Showers and thunderstorms are also flared-up over the Yucatan Peninsula under a diffluent pattern aloft. An upper-level low persists over Texas and NE Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed over the western Gulf and runs from SE Louisiana to the central Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf waters. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle winds and slight seas through the remainder of the week and upcoming weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over are over most of the basin. Frequent lightning and heavy rainfall restricting visibility is possible with this activity. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. Numerous showers and thunderstorms can also be found over the NW Caribbean and most of Cuba as well as over Nicaragua and Honduras. A diffluent pattern aloft continues to support this convective activity. An inverted upper-level trough extends from eastern Cuba to the SW Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over Hispaniola and Jamaica. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft are over the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean, gentle to moderate trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft exist in the NW Caribbean and near Costa Rica and Panama. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the coast of Hispaniola into the weekend. Locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse nightly off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A small area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of Bermuda is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity well to the northeast of its center. A 1018 mb low is analyzed near 29N60W. Dry air and strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent development of this system while the low moves generally north-northeastward at about 5 to 10 kt during the next day or so. High pressure of 1020 mb located near 31N72W extends a ridge over the western Atlantic and the Bahamas. Aloft, an upper-level low is just spinning E of Florida with the associated upper-level trough extending across the Bahamas to eastern Cuba. This system is enhancing convection across the region, particularly over the NW Bahamas. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence of a 1026 mb high pressure located in the vicinity of the Azores near 40N31W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are observed elsewhere across the Atlantic waters with seas of 2 to 4 ft W of 65W and 4 to 7 ft E of 65W. Looking ahead, an area of disorganized showers over the central Tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave with axis along 35W. Some slow development of this system is possible this weekend into early next week while it moves westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Currently, this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. For the forecast W of 55W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas will prevail into the weekend. Winds will pulse to locally fresh each night offshore Hispaniola. $$ GR