885 AXNT20 KNHC 290423 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Aug 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 35W from 07N to 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 06N to 08N between 30.5W and 36.5W. A tropical wave is along 62W and extends south into NE Venezuela. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The wave is helping to induce showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Leeward Islands, NE Venezuela and northern Guyana. The tropical wave will affect the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Thu. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of El Mamghar near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 11N21W to 12N49W. The ITCZ extends from 12N49W to 13N60W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are moving off the W coast of Africa, and are currently affecting from northern Liberia to Senegal and the regional waters from 04N to 14N E of 25W to the coast of Africa. This convective activity could be ahead of the next tropical wave. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 14N between 38W and 57W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted over the NW and NE Gulf while scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Showers and thunderstorms are also present over the Yucatan Peninsula due to a surface trough in the area. An upper-level low persists over Texas and NE Mexico. Another surface trough is analyzed over the central Gulf and runs from 28N87W to 24N90W. Moderate winds with seas 2 to 4 ft are present over the NW Gulf. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf waters. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle winds and slight seas through the remainder of the week and upcoming weekend. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are over most of the basin. Frequent lightning and heavy rainfall restricting visibility is possible with this activity. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the Lesser Antilles. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are found over the NW Caribbean and most of Cuba as well as over Nicaragua and Honduras. A diffluent pattern aloft continues to support this convective activity. An inverted upper-level trough extends from eastern Cuba to the SW Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over Hispaniola and Jamaica. The eastern end of the Eastern Pacific Monsoon Trough is producing scattered moderate convection off the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica. Moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are over the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere across the east and central Caribbean, gentle to moderate trades and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft exist in the NW Caribbean and near Costa Rica and Panama. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse off the coast of Hispaniola into the weekend. Locally fresh E to NE winds will pulse nightly off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1019 mb low pressure located near 29N60W is producing scattered moderate convection well to the northeast of its center. High pressure of 1021 mb located near 31N768W extends a ridge over the western Atlantic and the Bahamas. Aloft, an upper- level low is just spinning E of Florida with the associated upper-level trough extending across the Bahamas to eastern Cuba. This system is enhancing convection across the region, particularly over the NW Bahamas. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence of a 1027 mb high pressure located in the vicinity of the Azores near 40N29W. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are observed elsewhere across the Atlantic waters with seas of 2 to 4 ft W of 55W and 4 to 6 E of 55W. With the exception of fresh to locally strong N to NE winds are found north of 18N east of 19W. Seas in these areas are up to 7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, gentle to moderate E to NE winds and moderate seas will prevail into the weekend. Winds will pulse to locally fresh each night offshore Hispaniola. Looking ahead, a broad area of disorganized showers over the central Tropical Atlantic are associated with a tropical wave with axis along 35W. Some slow development of this system is possible this weekend into the middle of next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Currently, this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. $$ KRV