000 AXNT20 KNHC 291705 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Aug 29 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 37W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Any nearby convective precipitation also is close to the monsoon trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 69W/70W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 15N southward between 62W and 67W. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 74W eastward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains border areas of Mauritania and Senegal, 12N21W 13N38W 11N57W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 06N to 10N between 24W and 28W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 360 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, and within 120 nm to the north of the monsoon trough. Isolated moderate is from 10N to 20N between 57W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the west central and SW Gulf of Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is elsewhere. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, is from 21N northward from 86W westward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico, especially in the SE Gulf and in the Straits of Florida. A weak surface pressure gradient, moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, are everywhere. A weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle winds and slight seas through the upcoming weekend. Expect active weather to continue across NW and N central portions of the basin into the weekend, as an upper level trough lingers just W of the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The GFS model for 500 mb shows that an inverted trough extends from the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, through the northern half of Guatemala, through Belize, toward NW Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, to isolated strong, is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward from 80W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds, and moderate seas, are in the southern half of the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh NE winds, and moderate seas, are elsewhere in the central one-third of the area. Fresh NE winds are from 16N to 20N between 60W and 65W. Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 74W in Colombia, beyond Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 16N southward from 70W westward. Scattered moderate to strong is within 240 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 83W eastward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 29/1200 UTC, are: 2.59 in Guadeloupe; 0.24 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.22 in Freeport in the Bahamas; 0.18 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands; and 0.09 in Trinidad. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A weak western Atlantic ridge continues along about 31N today, and is maintaining a modest pressure gradient across the basin. Little change is expected through early Sat. Expect moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds to pulse at night off the coast of Hispaniola into the weekend. Fresh E to NE winds will pulse nightly to locally strong off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia through Fri. A tropical wave currently across the central Atlantic will reach the Tropical Atlantic waters along 55W Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is at the end of a stationary front, along 31N58W 29N60W 28N63W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the surface trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 30N to 32N between 55W and 58W. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Atlantic Ocean, from 20N northward. Fresh to strong northerly winds are from 18N to 23N from 22N eastward. Fresh northerly winds are elsewhere from 13N to 24N from 26W eastward. Fresh NE winds are from 16N to 20N between 60W and 65W. Fresh NE winds are from 25N southward between 68W and 77W, covering parts of the Bahamas to Cuba. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong SE winds are from 02N southward between 36W and 43W. Fresh SE winds are elsewhere from 06N southward between 35W and 43W. Fresh NE winds are from 03N southward between 46W and 50W. Fresh to moderate southerly winds are in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 32W eastward. Slight seas are mostly from 55W eastward. Some exceptions are for moderate seas from 22N southward between 60W and 70W. Moderate seas are elsewhere in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. An exception is for moderate to possibly rough seas from 18N to 21N from 20W eastward. A weak western Atlantic ridge continues along about 31N today, and is maintaining a modest pressure gradient across the region. Little change is expected through the weekend. This pattern will produce gentle to moderate E to NE winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong each night along and offshore the coast of Hispaniola. $$ mt/ss