968 AXNT20 KNHC 292310 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Aug 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 38W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 kt to 15 kt. Any nearby convective precipitation also is close to the monsoon trough. Of note, environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this wave, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves westward at 10 to 15 kt and approaches the Lesser Antilles. The system is then forecast to move westward to west- northwestward across portions of the eastern Caribbean during the middle part of next week. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 15N18W to 11N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 12N and E of 30W, and from 07N to 14N between 38W and 56W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A diffluent flow aloft is enhancing scattered moderate convection across most of the basin, mainly N of 24N. At the surface, ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered over the western Atlantic. To the SW, the diurnal thermal trough is inducing scattered moderate convection over the Yucatan peninsula and moving W across the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle to moderate winds and slight seas through the upcoming weekend. Expect active weather to continue across NW and N central portions of the basin into the weekend, as an upper level trough lingers just W of the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are over the north central Caribbean. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-3 ft, prevail. For the forecast, the weak western Atlantic ridge continues along about 31N, and is maintaining a modest pressure gradient across the basin. Little change is expected through early Sat. Expect moderate to fresh NE to E winds to pulse at night off the coast of Hispaniola into the weekend. Fresh E to NE winds will pulse nightly to strong off the coast of Venezuela and Colombia through Fri. A tropical wave currently across the central Atlantic will move across the Tropical Atlantic waters Sun night, and across the eastern Caribbean Mon through Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Surface ridging prevails over the basin. The tail end of a frontal boundary over the central Atlantic is analyzed as a trough extending from 31N58W to 28N60W. Winds over the waters N of 25N are in the gentle to moderate range, with seas of 3-6 ft. S of 25N, moderate to fresh winds prevail, with seas of 4-6 ft. For the forecast, the weak western Atlantic ridge is maintaining a modest pressure gradient across the region. Little change is expected through the weekend. This pattern will produce gentle to moderate E to NE winds and moderate seas through Fri night before the ridge shifts slightly southward and winds veer SE to the west of 75W. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong each night along and offshore the coast of Hispaniola. $$ ERA