545 AXNT20 KNHC 300427 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Aug 30 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic along 19W, south of 20N, based on satellite imagery and wave guidance data. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 11N to 16N and between 18W and 22W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 40W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N and between 37W and 44W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 73W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are present along the northern end of the wave, affecting western Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues westward to 12N40W and to 10N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident on satellite imagery from 04N to 13N and between 25W and 33W and also from 08N to 14N and between 44W and 57W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the waters of northern Gulf of Mexico, Florida Straits and eastern Bay of Campeche. The basin is under the influence of a weak subtropical ridge supporting moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas across much of the basin through early next week. Scattered to widespread convection will continue across northwest and north-central portions of the basin through this weekend, as an upper level trough lingers just west of the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are found in the NW Caribbean and off northern Panama, while pockets of low-level moisture move across the basin supporting light, isolated showers. The pressure gradient between a weak subtropical ridge near Bermuda and lower pressures in northern South America sustain fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found offshore NW Colombia. Moderate to occasionally fresh easterly breezes and seas of 2-5 ft are noted in the eastern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered near 31N and the Colombian low will support fresh to locally strong E to NE winds off the coast of Colombia and Venezuela into Sat. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night off the coast of Hispaniola through Sat. A tropical wave currently over the central Atlantic will move across the Tropical Atlantic waters Sun night, reaching the eastern Caribbean early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Divergence aloft continues to generate scattered showers in the SW North Atlantic, mainly west of 75W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds south of 27N and west of 55W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Farther east, moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are found east of 25W and north of 19N. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident south of 11N and east of 28W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a weak ridge centered near 31N is maintaining a modest pressure gradient across the basin. Gentle to moderate E to NE winds and moderate seas will occur through Fri night before the ridge shifts slightly southward and winds veer SE to the west of 75W. Fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will pulse each night along and offshore the coast of Hispaniola. $$ Delgado