000
AXNT20 KNHC 301038
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Fri Aug 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical in the eastern Atlantic is located along 12W south of 
20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is 
observed from 12N to 16N, between 18W and 24W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 41W south of 
20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 09N to 14N, between 39W and 52W. 

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean is along 75W south of 
20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to locally
strong convection is occurring south of 12N from the coast of 
Colombia westward to Costa Rica.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W and continues westward to 12N40W and to 
10N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
evident on satellite imagery from 06N to 13N between 30W and 37W 
and from 09N to 13N between 52W and 58W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate convection is occurring across the northern 
Gulf of Mexico as well as across southern portions of the Bay of 
Campeche. The basin is under the influence of a weak subtropical 
ridge supporting moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle 
to locally moderate winds and slight seas across much of the basin
through early next week. Scattered to numerous convection will 
continue across northwest and north-central portions of the basin 
through this weekend as an upper level trough persists across the 
northwestern Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave and
associated convection occurring across the basin.

Scattered moderate to locally strong convection is found in the 
NW Caribbean and off northern Panama, while pockets of low-level 
moisture moving across the basin supports light, isolated 
showers. The pressure gradient between high pressure centered 
near 31N and the Colombian low sustain fresh to locally strong E 
trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft. The strongest winds and highest 
seas are found offshore of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh E 
winds and seas of 2-5 ft are noted in the eastern Caribbean and 
Gulf of Honduras. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate 
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to NE winds off the 
coast of Colombia and Venezuela will continue into Sat. Moderate 
to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse at night off the coast 
of Hispaniola through Sat. A tropical wave currently over the 
central Atlantic will move across the Tropical Atlantic waters Sun
night, reaching the eastern Caribbean early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave and
associated convection occurring across the basin.

Divergence aloft continues to generate scattered showers in the SW
North Atlantic, mainly west of 75W. The remainder of the tropical
Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge supporting
moderate to locally fresh E trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft south 
of 27N and west of 55W. Farther east, moderate to fresh NE winds 
and seas of 5-8 ft are found east of 25W and north of 19N. 
Moderate to locally fresh S winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident 
south of 11N and east of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds 
and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate E to NE winds and moderate 
seas will occur through tonight before the ridge axis shifts 
slightly southward and winds veer SE to the west of 75W. Fresh to 
locally strong E to NE winds will pulse each night along and 
offshore the coast of Hispaniola. A tropical wave currently over 
the central Atlantic will move across the Tropical Atlantic waters
Sun night, reaching the eastern Caribbean early next week.

$$
ADAMS