000
AXNT20 KNHC 301648
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Fri Aug 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical in the eastern Atlantic is located along 24W from 04N
to 20N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is observed from 12N to 18N, between 18W and 26W.

A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 43.5W from 05N to
21N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 07N to 15N, between 40W and 48W. 

A tropical wave in the central Caribbean is along 78W from 20N
southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to
locally strong convection is occurring from the south coast of
Cuba to about 17N between 78W and the Yucatan Peninsula.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 12N25W and
then west-southwestward to 10N58W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is evident on satellite imagery from 04N to 13N
between 31W and 38W and from 08N to 14N between 48W and 62W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak 1013 mb surface low, along with a surface trough extending
to the east and west of the low, is supporting the development of
numerous moderate to locally strong convection across much of the
central to northern Gulf west of 84W. To the south, the diurnal 
surface trough NW of the Yucatan Peninsula is generating more 
scattered moderate convection across the central and southwestern 
Gulf west of 88W, including the Bay of Campeche. Much of this 
convection across the Gulf is also supported by a large upper 
level trough and developing upper low over central and southern 
Texas. The surface low is also supporting moderate cyclonic flow 
in the NW Gulf. Away from the NW Gulf, much of the basin is under 
the influence of a weak subtropical ridge supporting gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds and 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will maintain gentle 
to locally moderate winds and slight seas across much of the basin
through early next week. Scattered to numerous convection will 
continue across the northwest and north-central portions of the 
basin through this weekend as a mid to upper level trough persists
across the northwestern Gulf. Expect frequent lightning and gusty
winds with this activity. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave and
associated convection occurring across the basin.

In the SW Caribbean, scattered moderate to locally strong
convection is observed in the vicinity of both the Panama Low and
the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough,
generally south of 15N and west of 78W. Scattered moderate 
convection is also observed in the central to eastern Caribbean 
along and north of a line extending from near 11N62W to 17N73W 
where convergent surface winds are occurring. Elsewhere across the
Caribbean, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered 
near 31N and the Panama Low is sustaining moderate to fresh E 
trade winds in the central to eastern Caribbean, and seas of 5-8 
ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found offshore of
both Colombia and Hispaniola. Gentle to moderate E winds and seas
of 3 to 5 ft prevail across the far eastern and SW Caribbean,
while light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail in the
NW Caribbean. 

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure 
centered near 31N and the Colombian low will support fresh to 
locally strong E to NE winds off the coast of Colombia and 
Venezuela into Sat. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will 
pulse at night off the coast of Hispaniola into next week. A 
tropical wave currently over the central tropical Atlantic will 
move across these same waters through Sun night and across the 
Caribbean early next week. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves and
associated convection occurring across the basin.

Divergence aloft and a surface trough running through the central
Bahamas from 23N77W to 29N72W both continue to generate numerous
moderate convection in the SW North Atlantic, mainly west of 70W 
and north of 21N. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is 
dominated by a broad subtropical ridge supporting gentle to 
moderate E trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft south of 27N and west of
35W. Farther east, areas of moderate to fresh NE winds and seas 
of 5-8 ft are found east of 35W and north of 19N. Moderate to 
locally fresh S winds and seas of 5-8 ft are also evident from the
Equator to about 07N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
E winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate E to NE winds and moderate 
seas will occur through tonight before the ridge axis shifts 
eastward and winds veer to the SE to the west of 75W. Fresh to 
locally strong E to NE winds will pulse each night along and 
offshore the coast of Hispaniola. Numerous thunderstorms are over 
and near the Bahamas. This activity is accompanied by frequent 
lightning and gusty winds. 

$$
Adams