000 AXNT20 KNHC 311040 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Aug 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 27W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 15N and between 26W and 31W. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 47W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N and between 46W and 52W. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean is along 83W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are present along the northern end of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and continues southwestward to 10N36W and to 11N56W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 10N and between 39W and 43W. Similar convection is seen from 08N to 13N and between 52W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough of low pressure over the NW Gulf is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf waters. Meanwhile, scattered moderate to locally strong convection is occurring over the Bay of Campeche south of 20N. The basin is under the influence of a weak pressure gradient, resulting in moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, a persistent trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf will meander near the coast through much of the next week, supporting moderate to locally strong convection. Some slow development of this system is possible if it remains offshore. Gusty and erratic winds and elevated seas are possible near convection. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected through the middle of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave and associated convection occurring across the basin. Scattered moderate convection is occurring off the southern coast of Cuba as well as in the coastal waters off of Panama and Costa Rica. A recent scatterometer pass indicates moderate to fresh E winds across the central basin, with locally strong winds off the NW coast of Colombia. Seas are generally 4-6 ft in this region. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are found in the remainder of the Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will continue across central portions of the basin through tonight as the pressure gradient between a central Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low persists. The highest winds are expected off the coast of Hispaniola. Looking ahead, a tropical wave several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles could see gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form some time next week while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and continuing across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves and associated convection occurring across the basin. A surface trough along extending from 29N79W to the northern coast of Cuba, divergence aloft and abundant moisture sustain scattered showers west of 75W, affecting parts of the Bahamas, Cuba and southern Florida. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to locally strong E trade winds off NE Hispaniola, including at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh E breezes and moderate seas are found south of 27N and west of 55W. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are occurring north of 20N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, surface troughing and weak mid-level flow will continue to support scattered moderate to locally strong convection near the Bahamas over the next few days. Fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will pulse each night off the coast of Hispaniola through the middle of next week. A tropical wave several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles could see gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical depression could form some time next week while it moves westward, reaching the Lesser Antilles on Monday and continuing across the Caribbean Sea through the middle to latter part of the week. Looking ahead, another tropical wave just the west of the Cabo Verde Islands could see slow development through late next week while it moves slowly to the west-northwest over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. $$ ADAMS