000 AXNT20 KNHC 311757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Aug 31 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in clusters is from 05N to 15N between 21W and 37W. This precipitation is close to the tropical wave, and it is close to the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 05N to 16N and between 40W and 60W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W/85W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 160 nm to the south of NW Cuba between 80W and 84W. Isolated moderate to locally strong in clusters is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from Colombia to Nicaragua including in parts of Central America, and in parts of the Pacific Ocean, overall, from 04N to 14N between 75W and 90W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Mauritania near 15N17W, to 14N20W 11N34W 11N40W. The ITCZ continues from 11N40W, to a 12N51W 1012 mb low pressure center, to 12N59W. Precipitation: Precipitation is close to the tropical waves, and it is close to the monsoon trough/ITCZ. Isolated moderate is in the remainder of the areas that are from 20N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is from NW Cuba, to Lake Okeechobee in Florida, to NE Florida/SE Georgia. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters is within 180 nm to 360 nm to the east of the surface trough. The precipitation is covering areas that are in the NW Caribbean Sea off the coast of NW Cuba, and in the nearby areas of the NW Bahamas. A coastal surface trough, and a 1011 mb low pressure center, are in the coastal waters/in the coastal plains of the NW Gulf, from Louisiana to the Deep South of Texas. The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, and the water vapor satellite imagery, show cyclonic wind flow in the Texas coastal plains/in the Texas coastal waters, extending to 20N in Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 23N northward from 85W westward. Moderate or slower wind speeds, and slight seas, are everywhere in the Gulf of Mexico. A persistent trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf will meander near the coast through Mon, supporting moderate to locally strong convection. Some slow development of this system is possible if it remains offshore. Strong gusty winds and locally higher seas should be expected near convection. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected through the middle of next week as Atlantic high pressure extends inland across the SE U.S. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... One separate area of upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the eastern one-third of the area. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the southern half of the area. A second separate area of upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the central one-third of the area. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the northern half of the area. Mostly moderate to some fresh easterly winds are from 80W eastward. Gentle winds are in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate or slower winds are in the SW corner of the area. Moderate seas are between 70W and 80W. Slight to moderate seas are from 70W eastward. Slight seas are from 80W westward. The monsoon trough is along 09N/11N from 743 in Colombia, beyond Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong in clusters is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, from Colombia to Nicaragua including in parts of Central America, and in parts of the Pacific Ocean, overall, from 04N to 14N between 75W and 90W. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 31/1200 UTC, are: 3.46 in Nassau in the Bahamas; 1.15 in Guadeloupe; 0.55 in Monterrey in Mexico; 0.55 in Merida in Mexico; 0.16 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands; and 0.13 in Montego Bay in Jamaica. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will continue across central portions of the basin through tonight as a modest pressure gradient between a central Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low persists. Winds will then diminish slightly across the basin through Mon as the ridge weakens. Looking ahead, a tropical wave across the central Atlantic will reach the Lesser Antilles on Mon. Gradual development of this system is expected as it moves westward across the basin through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 20N northward from 80W eastward. Moderate seas are from 70W eastward. Slight seas are from 70W westward. Moderate to fresh NE winds are to the east of 31N26W 22N41W 15N49W from the monsoon trough/the ITCZ northward. Fresh SE winds are from 24N southward between 67W and 78W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere from the monsoon trough/ the ITCZ northward. Fresh to moderate S to SW winds are from the monsoon trough southward from 35W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the area that is from the monsoon trough/the ITCZ southward from 35W westward. A weak western Atlantic ridge along about 31N is maintaining a modest pressure gradient across much of the basin. A surface trough will continue to support scattered moderate to locally strong convection near the Bahamas over the next few days. Fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will pulse each night off the coast of Hispaniola through the middle of next week. A tropical wave across the central Atlantic will reach the Lesser Antilles on Mon. Some gradual development of this system is possible through Mon. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is expected as it moves westward across the Caribbean through Wed. $$ mt/ss