574 AXNT20 KNHC 312320 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Sep 01 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 28W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 48W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N and between 46W and 51W. The northern half of a tropical wave extends across the western Caribbean, with axis along 86W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are present along the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W and continues southwestward to 10N34W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 11N47W, then resumes W of a tropical wave near 13N49W to 12N58W. Aside from the convection related to the troipcal waves described above, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 15N and E of 20W and 43W, and from 08N to 13N between 51W and 57W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough of low pressure over the NW Gulf is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Gulf waters, mainly N of 24N between 86W and 93W. Meanwhile, scattered moderate convection is occurring over the Yucatan Peninsula related to the diurnal thermal trough. This activity is moving W across the Bay of Campeche south of 20N. The basin is under the influence of a weak pressure gradient, resulting in moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, the trough of low pressure over the northwestern Gulf will meander near the Texas and Louisiana coasts through late Mon, supporting moderate to locally strong convection across NW and N central portions of the Gulf. Some slow development of this system is possible if it remains offshore. Strong gusty winds and locally higher seas should be expected near convection. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected through the middle of next week as Atlantic high pressure extends inland across the SE U.S. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Scattered moderate convection is occurring off the southern coast of Cuba as well as in the coastal waters off of Panama and Costa Rica. A recent scatterometer pass indicates moderate to fresh NE winds across the central basin. Seas are generally 4-6 ft in this region. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are found in the remainder of the Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds will continue across central portions of the basin through early Sun as a modest pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge along 31N and the Colombian low persists. Winds will then diminish slightly across the basin through Mon as the ridge weakens. A tropical wave across the central Atlantic will reach the Lesser Antilles on Mon. Gradual development of this system is expected as it moves westward across the basin Mon night through Thu night, and a tropical depression may form. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves and associated convection occurring across the basin. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh E trade winds off NE Hispaniola, including at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh E breezes and moderate seas are found south of 27N and west of 55W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge is maintaining a modest pressure gradient across much of the basin. A low to middle-level trough will continue to support scattered moderate to locally strong convection across and near the Bahamas through late Sun, before shifting NW of that area. Fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will pulse each night off the coast of Hispaniola through the middle of next week. A tropical wave across the central Atlantic will reach the Lesser Antilles on Mon. Some gradual development of this system is possible through Mon. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is expected as it moves westward across the Caribbean through Thu, and a tropical depression could form. $$ ERA