622 AXNT20 KNHC 010425 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Sep 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 30W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers are observed from 05N to 14N and between 24W and 38W. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 50W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N and between 40W and 57W. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean is along 87W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. The tropical wave extends across Honduras and El Salvador and into the eastern Pacific. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present along the Pacific coast of Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 11N35W and to 11N56W. The convection is described in the Tropical Waves section. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A couple of surface troughs in the NW and SE Gulf waters result in isolated to scattered showers across a good portion of the basin. The basin is under the influence of a weak pressure gradient, resulting in moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure near the upper Texas coast is expected to linger near the coast through much of next week, and some slow development is possible if it meanders offshore. Strong gusty winds and locally higher seas should be expected near convection. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected through the middle of next week as Atlantic high pressure extends inland across the SE U.S. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Scattered showers are evident in the NW Caribbean due to a surface trough just north of the area and abundant tropical moisture. A ridge located south of Nova Scotia supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft in the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are found in the remainder of the Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate E to NE winds will continue across central portions of the basin into Mon. A tropical wave several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles could see slow development as the disturbance moves westward and reaches the Lesser Antilles on Monday. Later next week, the disturbance is expected to move across the central and western Caribbean Sea, where conditions could become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during that time. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves and associated convection occurring across the basin. A surface trough extends from off NE Florida to the SE Gulf waters and is interacting with an upper level disturbance resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 29N and west of 75W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are found south of 27N and west of 55W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 4-7 ft north of 20N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, ridging over the central Atlantic maintains a modest pressure gradient across much of the basin. A low to mid- level trough will continue to support scattered moderate to locally strong convection across and near the Bahamas through late Sun, before shifting NW of that area. Fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will pulse each night off the coast of Hispaniola through the middle of next week. A tropical wave several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles could see slow development as the disturbance moves westward and reaches the Lesser Antilles on Monday. Later next week, the disturbance is expected to move across the central and western Caribbean Sea, where conditions could become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during that time. $$ Delgado