000 AXNT20 KNHC 011758 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Sep 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation is close to the monsoon trough, and it is close to the tropical wave also. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W/55W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 450 nm to the west of the tropical wave. A tropical wave is in the SW Gulf of Mexico along 92W/93W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is to the west of the tropical wave, between the tropical wave and Mexico, from 20N southward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W, to 12N30W 10N38W 12N52W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters from 12N to 16N between 15W and 18W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm to the south of the monsoon trough. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 300 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 30W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough and a 1010 mb low pressure center are in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The trough runs from Louisiana to the Texas and NE Mexico coastal waters. The GFS model for 500 mb shows cyclonic wind flow in the NW corner of the Gulf. The GFS model for 700 mb shows cyclonic wind flow covering the entire Gulf. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate, and isolated to widely scattered strong, are from 25N northward from 85W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N northward from 85W westward. A second surface trough extends from NE Florida, to the SW coast of Florida, to the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate, and locally strong to isolated strong, are from 18N northward between 75W in the Atlantic Ocean and 85W in the Gulf of Mexico and in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate or slower wind speeds, and slight seas, are everywhere in the Gulf of Mexico. A broad area of low pressure near the upper Texas coast will linger near the coast through the next several days, and continue to produce active weather across the waters offshore of Texas and Louisiana. Some slow development is possible if it remains offshore. Strong gusty winds and locally higher seas should be expected near thunderstorms. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected through the middle of the upcoming week as high pressure persists across the SE U.S.A. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... One separate area of upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the eastern half of the area. A second separate area of upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the western half of the area. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in most places in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to some fresh E to SE winds are between Puerto Rico and Jamaica. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Slight to moderate seas are everywhere. The monsoon trough is along 12N72W in Colombia, through 10N80W, beyond Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 13N southward from 73W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 01/1200 UTC, are: 0.83 in Curacao; 0.80 in Trinidad; 0.52 in Montego Bay in Jamaica; 0.43 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.26 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands; and 0.25 in Guadeloupe and in Freeport in the Bahamas; and 0.07 in Nassau in the Bahamas. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Moderate trade winds prevail across central portions of the basin through Mon as weak high pressure persists across the W Atlantic. E winds will pulse to locally fresh off the south coast of Hispaniola each night through the middle of this week. A tropical wave across the Tropical Atlantic will reach 55W this evening, and continues to show some signs of organization. Slow development is possible as the disturbance moves westward and reaches the Lesser Antilles on Mon. Later this week, the wave is expected to move across the central and western Caribbean Sea, where conditions are expected to become more conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form during that time. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 01/1200 UTC, are: 0.25 in Freeport in the Bahamas; and 0.07 in Nassau in the Bahamas. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. This precipitation is related to the Florida-to-NE Yucatan Peninsula surface trough, that is listed in the Gulf of Mexico section. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 20N northward from 80W eastward. Fresh to moderate NE winds are from 31N19W 28N31W 24N40W 21N46W 20N58W to 13N; and from 20N to 24N between 63W and 73W. Fresh to moderate southerly winds are from Cuba northward from 75W westward. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere from the monsoon trough northward. Fresh to moderate southerly winds are from the monsoon trough southward from 42W eastward. Moderate seas are from 50W eastward. Slight to moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A low to mid-level trough will continue to support scattered moderate to locally strong showers and thunderstorms off the coast of Florida, Cuba and the Bahamas over the next several days. Fresh E to NE winds will pulse to locally strong each night off the coast of Hispaniola through the middle of the upcoming week. A tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to show some signs of organization. Slow development is possible as the disturbance moves westward and reaches the Lesser Antilles on Mon. Later this week, the wave is expected to move across the central and western Caribbean Sea, where conditions are expected to become more conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form during that time. $$ mt/ss