000 AXNT20 KNHC 012300 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Sep 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 35W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 10N between 30W-41W. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 57W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 18N and between 55W and 60W. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean and crossing into the Pacific is along 93W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time over the waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 12N52W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 17N and E of 25W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. A broad surface low is depicted in scatterometer data and latest observations near 27N94W, 1010 mb. Scattered moderate convection prevails across the northern half of the basin in the vicinity of this low. To the E, a surface trough is analyzed from 22N86W to 27N83W. Scattered moderate convection is noted SE of this trough. Light to moderate winds prevail across the basin with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, the area of low pressure near the upper Texas coast will linger near the coast through the next few days, and continue to produce active weather across the waters offshore of Texas and Louisiana. Some slow development is possible if it remains offshore. Strong gusty winds and locally higher seas should be expected near thunderstorms. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected through the middle of the upcoming week as high pressure persists across the SE U.S.. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers are evident in the NW Caribbean due to a surface trough just north of the area and abundant tropical moisture. The pressure gradient between The Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft in the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are found in the remainder of the Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate trade winds will prevail across central portions of the basin through Mon. E winds will pulse to fresh off the south coast of Hispaniola each night through the middle of this week. A tropical wave across the Tropical Atlantic along 56W-57W continues to show some signs of organization. Slow development is possible as the disturbance moves westward moves across the Lesser Antilles on Mon and the eastern Caribbean Mon night and Tue. Expect fresh to strong winds, seas building to near 8 ft, and scattered squalls and tstorms with and ahead of this wave. Later this week, the wave is expected to move across the central and western Caribbean, where conditions are expected to become more conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form during that time. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves and associated convection occurring across the basin. A surface trough extends from central Florida to the SE Gulf waters and is interacting with an upper level disturbance, resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms W of 75W. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. Moderate to fresh E trade winds are found south of 27N. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Farther east, moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are occurring north of 20N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the low to mid-level trough will continue to support scattered moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms across the waters E of Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba over the next several days. Fresh E to NE winds will pulse to strong each night off the coast of Hispaniola through the middle of the upcoming week. A tropical wave located a few hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to show some signs of organization. Slow development is possible as the disturbance moves westward and reaches the Lesser Antilles on Mon. Later this week, the wave is expected to move across the central and western Caribbean Sea, where conditions are expected to become more conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form during that time. Expect fresh to strong winds S of 23N through Wed night as this wave moves through the Caribbean. $$ ERA