000 AXNT20 KNHC 020419 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Sep 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0405 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced in the eastern Atlantic along 17W, south of 20N, based on satellite imagery and tropical wave guidance. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 16N and east of 26W. Another tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 36W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 16N and between 27W and 45W. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 58W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 08N to 18N and between 55W and 62W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 12N35W and to 09N48W. The ITCZ extends from 09N48W to 14N56W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 17N and between 46W and 54W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface trough in the eastern and NW Caribbean, divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture result in isolated showers over much of the northern half of the basin. The weak pressure gradient result in mainly gentle to moderate easterly winds and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure near the upper Texas coast will linger near the coast through the next few days, and continue to produce active weather across the waters offshore of Texas and Louisiana. Some slow development is possible if it remains offshore. By Tue, the system is forecast to move inland, and further development is not expected. Strong gusty winds and locally higher seas should be expected near thunderstorms. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected through the middle of the upcoming week as high pressure persists across the SE U.S. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft and abundant tropical moisture continue to support scattered showers over the NW Caribbean, especially north of 18N. Isolated showers are also seen in the SW and eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient across the central and NE Caribbean result in moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds, sustaining seas of 3-5 ft. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas are prevalent. For the forecast, moderate trade winds will prevail across central portions of the basin through Mon. E winds will pulse to locally fresh off the south coast of Hispaniola each night through the middle of this week. A tropical wave is over the Tropical Atlantic near 58W south of 21N. Disorganized scattered showers and thunderstorms are near and within 180 nm either side of the wave. The disturbance is expected to move westward and reach the Lesser Antilles on Mon, then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tue. Expect fresh to strong winds, seas building to near 8 ft along with scattered showers and thunderstorms E and W of this wave. Later during the upcoming week, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development while the system moves across the central and western Caribbean Sea, and a tropical depression could form during that time. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves and associated convection occurring across the basin. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive 1031 mb high pressure centered between Newfoundland and the Azores. A few showers are found in the SW North Atlantic, west of 77W. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds from 14N to 27N and west of 55W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Stronger winds are possible near the convection associated with the tropical wave located east of the Lesser Antilles. Farther east, moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found north of 17N and east of 25W. An scatterometer satellite pass from a few hours ago show moderate to locally strong southerly winds south of 11N and east of 40W. Sea in these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a low to mid-level trough will continue to support scattered moderate to locally strong showers and thunderstorms across the waters E of Florida, the Bahamas and Cuba over the next several days. Fresh E to NE winds will pulse to locally strong each night off the coast of Hispaniola through the middle of the upcoming week. A tropical wave is located a couple of hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. The wave is expected to move westward and reach the Lesser Antilles on Mon, then move across the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tue. Later in the week, the wave is expected to move across the central and western Caribbean Sea, where environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for some development, and a tropical depression could form during that time. Expect fresh to locally strong winds S of 23N through Wed night as this wave moves through the Caribbean. $$ Delgado