695 AXNT20 KNHC 021046 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Sep 02 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 19W from 04N to 20N. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Satellite imagery and TPW animation imagery depict the wave as being embedded within an extensive area of deep atmospheric moisture. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave from 07N to 15N between the wave and 26W. Scattered moderate convection is east of the wave to near the coast of Africa from 07N to 11N. A mid- level cyclonic circulation is visible near 12N19W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W from 04N to 20N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is confined to south of where the wave intersects the monsoon trough, roughly from 06N to 10N between 32W and 40W. Similar convection has recently developed within 180 nm east of the wave from 13N to 16N. This activity has overcome the dry and stable conditions that earlier where surrounding the northern part of this wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 59W south of 20N, moving westward at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 13N to 19N between 58W and 62W. A greater area of deeper convection is ahead of the wave as described below under Atlantic Ocean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W and continues southwestward to 12N20W, west-northwestward to 14N30W, then southwestward to 09N42W and northwestward to 15N51W. The ITCZ extends from 09N48W to 14N56W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 40W and 44W and within 120 nm north of the trough between 22W and 25W ...GULF OF MEXICO... Three surface troughs are analyzed over the basin. The first trough extends from near 26N83W to the northwest Yucatan Peninsula. A second trough extends from northeast Florida southwestward to the NE Gulf near 27N85W and the third trough is along the Texas coast reaching to near along the coast of northeast Mexico. The trough that is along the Texas coast is part of a broad area of low pressure. In addition to these features, deep tropical moisture remains entrenched over the area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the NW Gulf, and also over the central Gulf waters from about 22N to 27N between 85W and 90W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere. The gradient over the region remains rather week. Overnight ASCAT satellite data passes indicate generally gentle to moderate winds across the basin. Seas of 2 to 3 ft are over the basin, with slightly lower seas of 1 to 2 ft over the NE Gulf. For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure that is just offshore of the upper Texas coast is expected to meander near the coast for the next couple of days, and some slow development is possible if it remains offshore. By Tue, the system is forecast to move inland, and further development is not expected. Strong gusty winds and locally higher seas can be expected in and near showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are expected through the middle of the upcoming week as high pressure persists across the SE U.S. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A relatively weak pressure gradient over the central and northeastern sections of the sea is allowing for moderate to locally fresh trade winds. Seas with these winds are in the range of 3 to 5 ft per latest altimeter satellite data passes and buoy observations. Moderate or weaker winds along with slightly lowers seas of 2-4 ft are over the remainder of the basin. The presence of divergence aloft along with abundant tropical moisture continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern Caribbean, especially north of 18N. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted from 13N to 20N and between 75W and 81W. This activity is being further enhanced by a nearby upper-level low. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 13N west of Colombia. For the forecast, moderate trade winds will prevail across central portions of the basin through late tonight. E winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds off the south coast of Hispaniola each night through Wed. A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles near 60W. The disturbance is expected to move westward and cross the eastern Caribbean Sea through Tue with little development. Expect fresh to strong winds, seas building to near 8 ft along with scattered showers and thunderstorms E and W of this wave. Later during the middle and latter part of the week, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development while the system moves across the central and western Caribbean Sea, and a tropical depression could form during that time. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves and associated convection occurring across the basin. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by an expansive 1031 mb high pressure centered between Newfoundland and the Azores. The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds from 14N to 27N and west of 55W. Seas over these waters are 5 to 8 ft. Stronger winds are possible near the convection associated with the tropical wave located east of the Lesser Antilles. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are west of about 76W while scattered to numerous thunderstorms exhibiting frequent lightning are south of 24N between 68W and 71W and south of 21N between 60W and 68W. This activity is being further aided by a an upper-level low that is near 18N66W. A trough extends from the low to near 22N67W. A surface trough is analyzed from near 30N52W to 26N57W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are north of 26N and between 49W and 57W. Farther east, moderate to fresh northerly winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are north of 17N and east of 25W. Moderate to locally strong southerly winds are south of 11N and east of 40W. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a mid-level trough will maintain unsettled conditions over most of the western half waters, including waters adjacent to the the Bahamas and Cuba for the next several days. Fresh E to NE winds will pulse to locally strong each night off the coast of Hispaniola through midweek. A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles near 60W. The disturbance is expected to move westward and cross the eastern Caribbean Sea through Tue with little development. Expect fresh to strong winds, seas building to near 8 ft along with scattered showers and thunderstorms E and W of this wave. Later during the middle and latter part of the week, environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development while the system moves across the central and western Caribbean Sea, and a tropical depression could form during that time. Expect fresh to locally strong winds S of 23N through Wed night as this wave moves through the Caribbean. Winds diminish to moderate to fresh afterward. $$ Aguirre