000 AXNT20 KNHC 021749 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Sep 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W/20W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation is close to the monsoon trough, and it is close to the tropical wave also. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation is close to the monsoon trough, and it is close to the tropical wave also. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in clusters is from 13N to 17N within 190 nm to the west of the tropical wave. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 19N to 22N between 63W and 68W. within 450 nm to the west of the tropical wave. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is within 380 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 470 nm to the west of the tropical wave, from 06N in the Atlantic Ocean to 23N on the Atlantic Ocean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 15N17W, to 10N30W 10N40W 10N47W. The ITCZ continues from 10N47W, to 09N51W 12N60W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N to 16N from 44W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough and a 1010 mb low pressure center are in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The trough is in the Texas Gulf coastal waters. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers much of the rest of the Gulf, away from the NE Florida-to-22N93W surface trough. A second surface trough passes through NE Florida, to 22N93W in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 480 nm to the SE of the surface trough, in Florida, in the Atlantic Ocean to the east of Florida, in the Gulf of Mexico, and in the NW Caribbean Sea. Moderate or slower wind speeds, and slight seas, are everywhere in the Gulf of Mexico. A broad and weak low pressure centered just offshore the middle Texas coast is producing scattered thunderstorms along portions of the Texas coast and over adjacent waters of the NW Gulf of Mexico. This low is expected to meander for the next day or so, and some slow development is possible if it remains offshore. Tuesday, the low is forecast to move inland, and further development is not expected. Regardless, strong gusty winds and locally higher seas can be expected in and near associated thunderstorms. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... One separate area of upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the eastern half of the area. A second separate area of upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from Panama to Honduras from 80W westward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the rest of the areas of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong easterly winds are in the Caribbean Sea and in the Atlantic Ocean from 16N to 25N between 60W and 70W. Fresh easterly winds are within 180 nm to the south of Jamaica. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Slight to moderate seas are everywhere. The monsoon trough is along 11N/12N from the Peninsula de la Guajira of Colombia beyond southern Nicaragua, and into the Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from the monsoon trough southward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 14N southward from 70W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 02/1200 UTC, are: 0.85 in Curacao; 0.61 in Guadeloupe; 0.45 in Merida in Mexico; 0.37 in Trinidad; 0.07 in San Juan in Puerto Rico; 0.04 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras; 0.01 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. A tropical wave crossing the Lesser Antilles this morning near 63W is producing scattered moderate convection along with strong winds across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, and over adjacent Caribbean waters. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development when the wave reaches the western Caribbean late this week, and a tropical depression could form during that time. Otherwise, E winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds off the south coast of Hispaniola each night through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 02/1200 UTC, are: 0.89 in Freeport in the Bahamas; and 0.04 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. This precipitation is related to the NE Florida-to-22N93W surface trough, that is listed in the Gulf of Mexico section. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 20N northward from 80W eastward. Fresh NE winds are from 28N northward from 30W eastward; and in the areas that are from 15N to 23N24W 28N38W 23N48W 25N64W 25N70W. Moderate to fresh SE and S winds are from 70W westward. Fresh southerly winds are from the monsoon trough southward from 37W eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to near-rough seas are from 04N to 14N from 40W eastward. Slight seas are from 24N northward from 60W westward. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A mid-level trough will maintain unsettled conditions over most of the western half waters, including waters adjacent to the the Bahamas and Cuba for the next several days. Fresh E to NE winds will pulse to locally strong each night off the coast of Hispaniola through midweek. Winds diminish to moderate to fresh afterward. $$ mt/sk