878 AXNT20 KNHC 022125 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Sep 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 21W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. The axis of an Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is near 36W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. The axis of a Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 65W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots to 15 knots. Active convection near the tropical wave is producing scattered thunderstorms along with strong gusty winds across portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and adjacent waters. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development when the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea and southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this week and over the weekend, and a tropical depression could form during that time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 15N17W to 10N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12N between 17W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad and weak low pressure centered just offshore the middle Texas coast is producing a few thunderstorms along waters offshore Texas in the NW Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough extends across the eastern Gulf. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is SE of this trough. Gentle to moderate winds are over the far NW Gulf, with light to gentle winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range over the far NW Gulf, and 103 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the low is expected to move inland Tue morning, and tropical development is not anticipated. Scattered thunderstorms will locally gusty winds may still impact far NW Gulf waters into Tue night. Otherwise, a tropical wave may cross the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche this weekend, bringing showers and thunderstorms to portions of the SW Gulf of Mexico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see above for more on an active tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are over the far NE Caribbean, to the east of the wave axis. Seas over this area are in the 5-6 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere, except over the NW Caribbean, where mainly gentle winds prevail. Seas elsewhere are in the 3-5 ft range, except for 1-3 ft over the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean will continue to move westward. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development when the wave reaches the western Caribbean late this week, and a tropical depression could form during that time. Scattered thunderstorms along with gusty winds and seas to 8 ft will accompany this wave is it crosses the basin this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is off the coast of Florida. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the tropical and subtropical waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1022 mb high center near 31N48W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-4 ft, are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-7 ft, generally prevail elsewhere. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh E to NE winds will pulse to locally strong each night off the coast of Hispaniola through Wed as a tropical wave passes S of the area. Otherwise, a mid-level trough will maintain unsettled conditions over most of the western portion of the area, including waters adjacent to the the Bahamas and Cuba, for the next several days. $$ AL