000 AXNT20 KNHC 030609 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Sep 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from 19N southward across the eastern Cabo Verde Islands, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up from 11N to 13N between 22W and 26W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 38W from 19N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found from 12N to 16N between 38W and 42W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 67W from 20N southward across Puerto Rico to northern Venezuela. It is moving west at 20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is present at the eastern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development when this wave reaches the western Caribbean Sea and southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this week and over the weekend, and a tropical depression could form during that time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, then meanders southwestward across 12N30W to 09N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and up to 250 nm south of the trough. There is no ITCZ presence based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface trough curves southwestward from northern Florida across near Tampa to the central Gulf. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring at the east-central and central Gulf. A 1009 mb low near Corpus Christi, Texas is causing scattered moderate convection at the northwestern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are evident at the northwestern Gulf. Mainly gentle NE to SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms with locally gusty winds may still impact the far northwestern Gulf into Tue night. Otherwise, a tropical wave may cross the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche this weekend, bringing showers and thunderstorms to portions of the southwestern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA.. An upper-level trough and its related surface trough are triggering scattered moderate convection across the northwestern and west-central basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the Caribbean Basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist at the north-central and northeastern basin. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are seen at the lee of Cuba, south of the Windward Passage, and near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and dominate elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the aforementioned tropical wave will maintain showers and thunderstorms along with strong gusty winds across portions of the eastern and north-central Caribbean, including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and adjacent waters. Similar conditions along with seas peaking near 9 ft will accompany this wave is it moves across the rest the of the basin during late this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convergent southerly winds are producing scattered moderate and isolated thunderstorms east of the Florida and at the Great Bahama Bank. Refer the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for more convection in the Atlantic Basin. A Bermuda-Azores high is supporting gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds along with seas at 4 to 7 ft north of 20N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 30W. To the south near the Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle NE and monsoonal westerly winds are evident from 13N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and 4 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh NE to E winds will pulse to locally strong each night off the coast of Hispaniola through Wed as a tropical wave passes south of the area. Otherwise, a mid- level trough will maintain unsettled conditions over most of the western Atlantic, including waters adjacent to the the Bahamas and Cuba, for the next several days. $$ Chan