154 AXNT20 KNHC 031018 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Sep 03 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W from 04N to across the eastern Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Limited convection in the form of the scattered moderate to isolated strong type is noted along the mid-section of the wave where it crosses the monsoon trough, or from 13N to 14N between 22W and 25W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W from 04N to 20N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. An area of increasing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 12N to 18N between the wave and 45W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm west of the southern part of the wave from 05N to 08N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W south of 20N to inland Venezuela. It is moving westward near 20 kt. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection from 14N to 18N between 66W and 70W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm east of the wave from 13N to 14N. Environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for development when the system reaches the western Caribbean Sea and southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this week, and over the weekend, and a tropical depression could form during that time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, then extends southwestward to 12N22W, westward to 13N35W and southwestward to 10N41W and to 09N49W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical waves as described above, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 13N between 29W and 33W and from 05N to 10N between 33W and 39W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough stretches southwestward from northeast Florida to near Tampa to the central Gulf at 23N89W. A 1008 mb low is just inland the Texas coast near 27N97.5W. A recent ASCAT satellite data pass indicates gentle winds shifting from northeast to southeast across the trough axis. Isolated showers are near the trough. Increasing moderate convection is over the NW Gulf from just along the Texas coast from 26N to 29N and extending out over the offshore waters to 94W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the central Gulf from 24N to 27N between 89W and 93W, and over the eastern Bay of Campeche. A rather weak gradient in place over the area is allowing for generally gentle to moderate east to southeast winds along with seas of 2 to 4 ft over the NW Gulf. Mainly gentle northeast to southeast winds and lower seas of 1 to 3 ft are over the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, unsettled weather in the form of scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thu as a weak front drops south into the northern Gulf and stalls and weakens. Some of this activity may contain locally gusty winds. On Fri, a front is expected to move into the far northern Gulf and far western Gulf, followed by mostly fresh northeast winds through late Sat. Otherwise, a tropical wave may cross the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche this weekend, bringing showers and thunderstorms to portions of the SW Gulf of Mexico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA.. An upper-level trough and its related surface trough that is analyzed from near the western tip of Cuba to near northeastern Honduras are triggering scattered to numerous moderate convection across the northwestern and west-central sections of the sea, including the Gulf of Honduras. This convection is revealing frequent lightning. Similar convection with also frequent lightning is over the Dominican Republic and adjacent waters. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for information on additional convection in the Caribbean Basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are over the north-central and northeastern sections of the basin. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are seen at the lee of Cuba, south of the Windward Passage, and near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and dominate elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the aforementioned tropical wave will maintain showers and thunderstorms along with strong gusty winds across portions of the eastern and north-central Caribbean, including Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and adjacent waters. Similar conditions along with seas peaking to around 8 or 9 ft will accompany this wave is it moves across the rest the of the basin during late this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Plenty of deep atmospheric moisture that is in place over the western portion of the area is helping to contribute to additional scattered showers and thunderstorm activity north and west of the Bahamas as swell as in pockets over the waters elsewhere west of about 69W. The gradient related to the Bermuda high is allowing for generally gentle to moderate northeast to east and to southeast winds along with seas at 4 to 7 ft north of 20N between 30W and the Florida-Georgia coast. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, moderate to fresh along with locally strong northeast winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are north of 20N between the northwest coast of Africa and 30W. To the south near the Cabo Verde Islands, light to gentle northeast and monsoonal westerly winds are evident from 13N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 30W. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate along with locally fresh northeast to east winds and seas are noted. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas in the range of 5 to 7 ft due to mixed moderate swell remain over the rest of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh NE to E winds will pulse to locally strong each night off the coast of Hispaniola through Wed as a tropical wave passes south of the area. Otherwise, a mid- level trough will maintain unsettled conditions over most of the western Atlantic, including waters adjacent to the the Bahamas and Cuba, for the next several days. $$ Aguirre