000
AXNT20 KNHC 031656
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Sep 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 25W from 05N
to 19N, and is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is observed with this wave, generally from 10N to 15N
between 21W and 28W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 41W from 
04N to 20N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. An area of 
increasing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is 
seen from 11N to 18N between 40W and 45W.

An central Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W from 20N southward to
inland Venezuela. It is moving westward near 20 kt. Satellite 
imagery shows scattered moderate and isolated strong convection 
from 13N to 21N between 63W and 77W. Environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development when the system
reaches the western Caribbean Sea and southwestern Gulf of Mexico
late this week or over the weekend, and a tropical depression 
could form during that time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near 18N16W, then extends southwestward to 12N23W, westward to 
12N38W and southwestward to 06N50W. Aside from convection 
associated with the tropical waves as described above, numerous 
moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 15N between
30W and 41W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad area of low pressure over Deep South Texas and attendant
surface trough extending along the adjacent Mexican coast are 
generating numerous moderate, isolated strong convection across
areas west of 93W and north of 22N. A surface trough out ahead of
an approaching cold front extends from NE Florida southwestward 
across the northeastern and central Gulf to near 24N94W. A diurnal
surface trough is also analyzed over the Bay of Campeche. 
Scattered moderate convection is observed along and generally 
within 100 nm of these trough axes. Outside of convection, a 
rather weak gradient in place over the area is allowing for 
generally gentle to moderate east to southeast winds along with 
seas of 1 to 3 ft over much of the Gulf.

For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms with locally gusty 
winds will continue through late week as a cold front stalls along
the northern Gulf coast. A reinforcing cold front will move into 
the NW Gulf Fri into Sat, bringing fresh to locally strong NE 
winds behind it. A tropical wave currently in the central 
Caribbean could develop into a tropical depression as it SW Gulf 
of Mexico this weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA..

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information
on convection in the central to eastern Caribbean.

Scattered moderate convection is observed via satellite over the
far northwestern and far southwestern Caribbean, generally along
and near the coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize, Honduras,
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Moderate to fresh, locally
strong easterly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are over the north-
central and northeastern sections of the basin. Gentle to moderate
E winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are seen across the remainder of the 
basin. 

For the forecast, the tropical wave near 71W will continue moving
westward, and a tropical depression could form when it reaches 
the western Caribbean late this week. Thunderstorms, strong winds,
and rough seas will accompany this wave in the north-central and 
NW Caribbean this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for more
information on convection in the central and eastern Atlantic.

Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead of a cold front
stemming from low pressure centered near 33N75W, with convection
occurring generally north of 28N and west of 68W. Another area of
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is also observed via
satellite from 23N to 28N between 56W and 60W. Outside of
convection, the Bermuda-Azores high continues to favor gentle to
moderate E to NE winds across much of the basin. Areas
of moderate to fresh winds are seen with the tropical wave near
41W,  as well as in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Seas of 4
to 7 ft are also analyzed across much of the Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, f resh E to NE winds will pulse to 
locally strong tonight and Wed night off the coast of Hispaniola 
as a tropical wave passes S of the area. Otherwise, a mid-level 
trough will continue to maintain unsettled conditions over most of
the western portion of the area, including waters adjacent to the
the Bahamas and Cuba, for the next several days. 

$$
Adams