000
AXNT20 KNHC 032034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Wed Sep 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 27W from 05N 
to 19N, and is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between
24W and 30W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 42W from 04N 
to 20N, and is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 19N between
40W and 45W.

An central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 72W from 20N
southward, moving westward near 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 19N between
65W and 77W. This system is expected to move westward, and a 
tropical depression could form when it reaches the western 
Caribbean Sea and the southwestern Gulf of Mexico late this week 
or over the weekend. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near 18N16W to 12N25W to 08N50W. Aside from convection noted in
the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 30W and 40W. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad area of low pressure over Deep South Texas and attendant
surface trough extending along the adjacent Mexican coast are 
generating numerous moderate, isolated strong convection across
the waters N of 25N and west of 92W. A surface trough extends 
from N Florida southwestward across the northeastern and central 
Gulf to near 24N92W. A stationary front extends across the 
northern Gulf. Moderate winds are found N of the front, where seas
are in the 2-3 ft range. S of the stationary front, light to 
gentle winds, and seas of 1-2 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms with locally gusty 
winds will continue through late week as a cold front stalls along
the northern Gulf coast. A reinforcing cold front will move into 
the NW Gulf Fri, bringing fresh to strong NE winds behind it. A 
tropical wave currently in the central Caribbean could develop 
into a tropical depression as it moves into the SW Gulf of Mexico 
this weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA..

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information
on convection in the central to eastern Caribbean.

A locally tighter pressure gradient near the tropical wave is
supporting fresh to strong winds over the waters S of Hispaniola,
where seas are in the 5-6 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds are
found over the NE Caribbean, where seas of 5-6 ft are noted.
Gentle to locally moderate winds, and seas of 2-3 ft, are over the
western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft
are noted elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the tropical wave will continue moving 
westward, and a tropical depression could form when it reaches the
western Caribbean late this week. Thunderstorms, strong winds, 
and rough seas will accompany this wave in the north-central and 
NW Caribbean this week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found over
the waters N of 29N and west of 70W in the vicinity of low
pressure centered just N of the area near 32N75W. Scattered
moderate convection, along with fresh to strong winds, are found N
of Hispaniola as a tropical wave is moving across the central
Caribbean. High pressure prevails elsewhere over the tropical and
subtropical waters N of 20N. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds
and seas of 5-7 ft generally prevail across the discussion 
waters. 

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh E to NE winds will pulse to 
locally strong this evening and again Wed evening off the coast of
Hispaniola as a tropical wave passes S of the area. Otherwise, a 
mid-level trough will continue to maintain unsettled conditions 
over most of the western portion of the area, including waters 
adjacent to the the Bahamas and Cuba, for the next several days. 

$$
AL