000 AXNT20 KNHC 040618 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Sep 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 28W from 19N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 24W and 30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W from 20N southward, and moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 17N between 40W and 45W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W from Haiti southward to near the Colombia-Venezuela, and moving westward near 10 kt. Numerous showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are evident near the ABC Islands, and Gulf of Venezuela. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring south of Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, then meanders southwestward across 12N30W to 08N49W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near and up to 200 nm north, west of 31W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A broad surface trough curves west-southwestward from the northwestern Gulf to the west-central Gulf. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near this feature. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are found across the northwestern and north-central Gulf, north of 26N. Fresh with locally strong E to ESE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen at the northeastern Gulf, north of 26N. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, unsettled weather will continue through the end of the week mainly over the western Gulf as low pressure meanders just inland from the Texas coast. Expect for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly accompanied by strong gusty winds and rough seas, to impact that part of the Gulf during this time. A cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf on Fri, reach from the Florida Panhandle to the southwestern Gulf by Sat afternoon, and become stationary from north-central Florida to the central Gulf and to the southwestern Gulf by late Sun. The front will be followed by fresh to strong winds. A tropical wave that is currently over the central Caribbean could acquire some development prior to it moving into the southwestern Gulf early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough is triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the basin. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft are present at the north- central basin. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas exist across the eastern and south- central basin. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are found near Costa Rica and Panama. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds along with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the tropical wave will continue to move quickly westward, however, some development is possible late this week when the wave slows down over the northwestern basin. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity will shift westward with the wave to the northwestern basin by late this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Aided by diffluent flow aloft, convergent southerly winds are triggering scattered moderate convection north of 27N between 77W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A twice of high pressure near 32N61W and 33N51W are sustaining gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft north of 20N between 30W and the Florida/Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, NE to E winds off the coast of Hispaniola will pulse again to fresh to strong on Wed night as a tropical wave passes to the south of the area. Otherwise, a mid- level trough will continue to maintain unsettled conditions over most of the western portion of the area, including waters adjacent to the the Bahamas and Cuba, for the next several days. $$ Chan