000 AXNT20 KNHC 041123 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Sep 04 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 29W from 05N to 20N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is increasing east of the wave to 24W and from 13N to 16N. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from 12N to 14N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W from 05N to 20N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Increasing scattered moderate convection is seen from 11N to 17N between 40W and 45W. Gusty winds and rough seas accompany this activity. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 75W extending from vicinity of the Windward Passage to just west of the Colombia- Venezuela border. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with frequent lightning are confined from 18N to 21N between the wave and 80W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are ahead of the wave from 12N to 18N between 76W and 83W. Other scattered showers and thunderstorms are east of the wave from 12N to 15N between 69W and 74W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, then continues southwestward to 12N30W to 12N40W and dips further southwestward to 07N48W. Aside from convection related to tropical waves as describe above scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 34W and 40W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough between 41W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed from just south of western Florida panhandle to near 25N94W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 26N to 30N between 84W and 87W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are north of 20N and west of 87W. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are over the NW and north-central Gulf sections to the north of 26N while winds of moderate, to at times fresh speeds, are over the NE Gulf along with seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the NE Gulf north of 26N. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. Overnight ASCAT satellite data captured some of the winds over the NW and central portions. For the forecast, unsettled weather will continue through the end of the week mainly over the western Gulf as low pressure meanders just inland the Texas coast. Expect for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, some possibly accompanied by strong gusty winds and rough seas, to impact that part of the Gulf during this time. A cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf on Fri, reach from the Florida panhandle to the SW Gulf by Sat afternoon, and become stationary from north-central Florida to the central Gulf and to the SW Gulf by late Sun. The front will be followed by fresh to strong winds. A tropical wave that is currently over the central Caribbean could acquire some development prior to it moving into the SW Gulf early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad mid to upper-level trough is triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the basin. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft are present at the north- central basin. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are over the eastern and south-central portions of the basin. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are in the far southwest part of the sea. Gentle to moderate northeast to east and east to southeast winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft remain elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, the tropical wave over the central Caribbean described above will continue to move quickly westward, however, some development is possible late this week when the wave slows down over the northwestern Caribbean Sea. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity will shift westward with the wave to the northwestern Caribbean by late this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Plentiful moisture entrenched over the western half of the basin continues provide support for additional shower and thunderstorm activity to develop over this part of the basin. Latest satellite imagery shows increasing clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection near a stationary frontal boundary that stretches from a 1016 mb low that is north of the area near 34N71W, southwestward to inland northern Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 29N and west of about 74W. To the east, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection moving eastward is from 27N to 30N between 65W and 72W. This activity is being driven by a broad mid to upper-level trough. A diffluent flow pattern east of the trough is further aiding this activity. A couple of high centers are analyzed north of the area. One of 1021 mb is near 32N60W and the other of 1022 mb is near 34N53W. The associated gradient is allowing for generally gentle to moderate, with locally fresh northeast to east and to southeast winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 20N between 30W and the Florida/Georgia coast. A weak surface trough is analyzed from near 31N32W to 25N30W while an elongated E to W upper-level low is just to its north. A few showers are near the northern part of the trough. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, mostly moderate to fresh trade winds are present there, with the exception of light and variable winds confined to south of 13N between 41W and 55W and also south of 10N west of 55W. Seas over this part of the basin are 6 to 8 ft, except for lower seas of 3 to 4 ft within the area of light and variable winds. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the basin, with seas of 4 to 7 ft east of about 60W and 3 to 5 ft west of 60W. The exception is in the far northwest corner of the area where fresh northeast winds are behind the aforementioned stationary boundary. Seas with these winds are 6 to 9 ft in northeast swell. For the forecast W of 55W, northeast to east winds off the coast of Hispaniola will pulse again to fresh to strong speeds tonight as a tropical wave passes to the south of the area. Otherwise, the mid to upper-level trough will continue to maintain unsettled conditions over most of the western portion of the area, including waters adjacent to the the Bahamas and Cuba, for the next several days. The stationary frontal boundary will most probably linger into the weekend. $$ Aguirre