704 AXNT20 KNHC 041650 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Sep 04 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1650 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 29W from 06N to 20N. It is moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 13.5N to 16N between 26W and 32W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 48.5W from 06N to 20N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 14N to 20N between 44.5W and 53W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 77W extending from eastern Cuba to western Colombia. It is moving westward at about 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with frequent lightning are confined from 14N to 18N between 70W and 78W. This activity is accompanied by gusty winds and seas up to around 8 ft. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, then continues southwestward to 12N32W to 13N44W. The ITCZ begins 13N44W and extends to 11N60W. Aside from convection related to tropical waves as describe above scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 34W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is analyzed over the north and northwest Gulf and is triggering scattered moderate convection over the area. A surface trough is analyzed from 29N88W to near 25N94W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted over the central Gulf in association with the trough. Elsewhere, isolated showers and thunderstorms are found. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are over the NW and north-central Gulf sections north of 28N. South of 28N and east of 91W gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail with seas 2 to 3 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle east to southeast winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, unsettled weather will continue through the end of the week mainly over the northern Gulf as a frontal boundary prevails along the Gulf coast states. Strong gusty winds and rough seas are expected with this activity. A cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf on Fri, reach from the Florida panhandle to the SW Gulf by Sat afternoon, and become stationary from north-central Florida to the central Gulf and to the SW Gulf by late Sun. The front will be followed by fresh to strong winds. A tropical wave currently over the west- central Caribbean could develop into a tropical system as it moves into the SW Gulf waters by early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad mid to upper-level trough is triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional convection in the basin. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are present at the north- central basin. Moderate to fresh east winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are over the eastern and south-central portions of the basin. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are in the far southwest part of the sea. Gentle to moderate mainly east winds along with seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, a tropical wave is over the central Caribbean near 77W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are east of the wave to near 69W and north of 14N. This activity is accompanied by gusty winds and seas up to around 8 ft. The wave will continue to move quickly westward, however, some development is possible late this week when the wave slows down over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or early next week over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is depicted over east Florida and offshore waters ahead of a stationary front located between the Florida Georgia line. Scattered moderate convection is found north of 30N in association with these features. Another surface trough is depicted north 28.5N and is producing scattered moderate convection from 27N to 31N between 68W and 72W. A 1035 mb high is analyzed north of the Azores and another 1025 mb high is near 34N55W. The associated gradient between the high pressure and the lower pressures in the tropical Atlantic is allowing for generally gentle to moderate, with locally fresh northeast to east and to southeast winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 20N between 30W and the Florida/Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 10N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, mostly moderate to fresh trade winds are present, with the exception of light and variable winds confined to south of 14.5N between 43W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas over this part of the basin are 5 to 8 ft, except for lower seas of 3 to 4 ft within the area of light and variable winds. Between the west coast of Africa and 20W fresh to locally strong winds are found with seas up to 10 ft. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the basin, with seas of 4 to 7 ft east of about 60W and 3 to 5 ft west of 60W. The exception is in the far northwest corner of the area where fresh northeast winds are behind the aforementioned stationary boundary. Seas with these winds are 6 to 9 ft in northeast swell. For the forecast W of 55W, east winds off the coast of Hispaniola will pulse again to fresh to strong speeds tonight as a tropical wave passes to the south of the area. Otherwise, a mid to upper-level trough will continue to maintain unsettled conditions over most of the western portion of the area, including waters adjacent to the Bahamas and Cuba, for the next several days. $$ KRV