000 AXNT20 KNHC 042314 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Sep 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is W of the Cabo Verde Islands with axis along 30W south of 19N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. This wave is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible during the next few days while it drifts westward. Another tropical wave located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Its axis is currently along 51W south of 20N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Development of this system, if any, is expected to be slow to occur over the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable for additional development by the end of the week. A tropical wave is moving quickly westward at about 15 to 20 kt across the central Caribbean. Its axis is along 78W and is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across portions of the central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are noted on the E side of the wave axis extending eastward to about 67W with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Some development of this system is possible early next week when it moves over the SW Gulf of Mexico. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for further information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, then continues southwestward to 12N30W to 13N46W. The ITCZ begins W of the tropical wave along 51W and extends from 13N53W to 11N60W. Aside from convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 35W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends along the Gulf coast states producing numerous showers and thunderstorms. A surface trough is analyzed over the western Gulf and extends from 28N94W to 22N95W. Numerous showers, with embedded thunderstorms are noted on either side of the trough axis and mainly N of 22N and W of 91W. Once again, showers and thunderstorms have flared-up over Florida. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce all this convective activity. Scatterometer data provide observations of fresh to strong E winds just N of the frontal boundary over the far NE Gulf with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate E to SE winds prevail with slight to moderate seas. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. For the forecast, unsettled weather will continue through the end of the week mainly over the northern Gulf as a frontal boundary prevails along the Gulf coast states. Strong gusty winds and rough seas are expected with this activity. A cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf on Fri, reach from the Florida panhandle to the SW Gulf by Sat afternoon, and become stationary from north-central Florida to the central Gulf and to the SW Gulf by late Sun. The front will be followed by fresh to strong winds. A tropical wave currently over the west-central Caribbean could develop into a tropical system as it moves into the SW Gulf waters by early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more information. The convective activity associated with the wave is affecting parts of eastern Cuba, Jamaica and regional waters. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are also noted over parts of northern Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula. As previously mentioned, fresh to strong winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are observed over the central Caribbean behind the tropical wave. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail with seas of 4 to 6 across the remainder of the east and central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft over the NW Caribbean, with the exception of the lee of Cuba and in the SW Caribbean where seas of 1 to 2 ft are noted. For the forecast, the tropical wave will continue to move quickly westward, however, some development is possible early next week when the system moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A frontal boundary is N of the forecast area, extending from near Bermuda to NE Florida. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are in the wake of the front with seas of 8 to 10 ft. A low is along the front near 33N69W. This system could acquire some subtropical characteristics over the next few days as it moves north- northeastward, remaining offshore of the northeastern United States. A surface trough is analyzed ahead of the front and runs from 30N77W to central Florida. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a ridge, anchored by a 1033 mb high pressure located N of the Azores near 45N25W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over NW Africa supports an area of fresh to strong N to NE winds with seas of 8 to 10 ft between the coast of Morocco and northern Western Sahara and the Madeira/Canary Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are noted, except near the northern end of the tropical wave located along 51W where fresh to strong winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are occurring. Seas in the 4 to 6 ft range dominate the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, with the exception of 6 to 9 ft in NE swell E of NE Florida due to the proximity of the above mentioned front. For the forecast W of 55W, east winds off the coast of Hispaniola will pulse again to fresh to strong speeds tonight. Otherwise, a mid to upper-level trough will continue to maintain unsettled conditions over most of the western Atlantic, including waters adjacent to the Bahamas and Cuba, for the next several days. $$ GR