000 AXNT20 KNHC 050558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Sep 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 31W from 19N southward, and moving west around 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 14N to 16N between 28W and 30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 52W from 20N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 15N to 18N between 45W and 53W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from the Cayman Islands southward to central Panama. It is moving west around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring at the northwestern Caribbean Sea, including waters near the Cayman Islands and Jamaica, and in the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, extends west-southwestward to 12N32W then turns westward to 13N47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near and up to 250 nm south of the trough west of 42W. No ITCZ is present based on the latest analysis. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Santa Marta, Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front runs westward from the Florida Big Bend area across New Orleans, Louisiana to southern Texas. This feature is inducing widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the northern Gulf, north of 28N. Meanwhile, two surface troughs are producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Gulf, and at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh NE to SE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas are evident over the northern Gulf, north of 26N. Gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are present at the Florida Strait and eastern Bay of Campeche. Mainly gentle NE to E winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, unsettled weather will continue through the end of the week mainly over the western and northern Gulf waters as a stationary front prevails along the Gulf coast states. Strong gusty winds and rough seas are expected with this activity. A cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf on Fri, reach from the Florida Panhandle to the southwestern Gulf by Sat afternoon, and become stationary from north-central Florida to the southwestern Gulf late Sun into early next week. The front will be followed by fresh to strong winds. A tropical wave currently over the west-central Caribbean could develop into a tropical system as it moves into the southwestern Gulf by early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for convection in the basin. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are seen from near Jamaica southeastward to north of the Colombia/Venezuela border, near a tropical wave. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted at the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds and rough seas are expected to shift westward with the tropical wave through Fri. Both winds and seas should begin to subside this weekend as the wave moves west of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Modest convergent southerly winds are causing isolated thunderstorms north of 25N between 60W and the Florida/Georgia coast. An upper-level low near 25N56W is producing widely scattered moderate convection from 20N to 28N between 50W and 60W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A surface ridge extends southwestward from an Azores High across 31N43W to near the southeast Bahamas. This feature is supporting gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft north of 20N between 20W and the Florida/Georgia coast. For the tropical central Atlantic from 14N to 20N between 42W and 52W, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are present. Farther west from 10N to 20N between 52W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to locally moderate ENE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are found. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong N to NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate north of 15N between the Africa coast and 20W. Near the Cabo Verde Islands north of 15N between 20W and 42W, gentle to moderate NNE to NE winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, east winds off the coast of Hispaniola will pulse again to fresh to strong tonight. Otherwise, a mid to upper-level trough will continue to maintain unsettled conditions over most of the western portion of the area, including waters adjacent to the Bahamas and Cuba, for the next several days. $$ Chan