000 AXNT20 KNHC 051027 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Sep 05 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands with its axis along 32W from 08N to 20N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. No deep convection is noted with this wave as it is surrounded by dry and stable air. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 53W from 06N to 20N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. An area of disorganized scattered moderate convection is east of the wave from 13N to 20N between 45W and the wave. By early next week, environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow development while the system moves northwestward over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 81W from the Cayman Islands southward to central Panama. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Numerous moderate convection is from 15N to 19N between 80W and 85W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 12N to 15N between 77W and the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott, and extends west-southwestward to 15N30W, and continues west-southwest to near 11N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 42W and 47W and within 30 nm of the trough between 43W and 46W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Santa Marta, Colombia. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front stretches west-southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area across New Orleans, Louisiana to low pressure of 1011 mb off the middle Texas coast near 28N95W. A trough extends from the low to inland southern Texas near Brownsville and to northeast Mexico. This feature is inducing scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern Gulf north of 28N and over the western Gulf north of 24N and west of 92W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the NE Gulf from 25N to 28N east of 85W to along the central Florida coast. Moderate to fresh northeast to southeast winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the northern Gulf. Gentle to moderate northeast to east-southeast winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are over the Strait of Florida and eastern Bay of Campeche. Mainly gentle northeast to east winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are over the rest of the basin. For the forecast, unsettled weather will continue through the end of the week mainly over the western and northern Gulf waters as a frontal boundary prevails along the Gulf coast states. Strong gusty winds and rough seas are expected with this activity. A cold front is expected to move into the western Gulf on Fri, reach from the Florida panhandle to the SW Gulf by Sat afternoon, and become stationary from north-central Florida to the central Gulf and to the SW Gulf late Sun into Mon. The front will be followed by fresh to strong winds, except for possible strong to near gale winds offshore Veracruz Sat through Sun night. A tropical wave currently over the western Caribbean has potential for some development in a few days after it crosses the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and moves over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for convection in the basin. Fresh to strong easterly winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are present from near Jamaica southeastward to north of the Colombia/Venezuela border. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted at the southwestern basin. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, the tropical wave that is over western Caribbean Sea as described above under Tropical Waves will exit the basin on Fri. The associated shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually diminish into the weekend. A rather weak pressure gradient will allow for generally gentle to moderate trades to exist across the basin into early next week. Pulses of fresh trades will occur near Venezuela and Colombia during the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N76W southwestward to inland northern Florida. Clusters of scattered moderate convection moving eastward are south of the stationary boundary to near the NW Bahamas, and south of the boundary to near 28N between 74W and 77W. Similar activity is along and north of the boundary between 76W and 81W. A small upper-level low moving westward is near 26N55W as observed on water vapor imagery. A trough extends from the low southwestward to another small upper-level low near 21N61W. A surface trough is analyzed from 21N59W to 15N58W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 18N to 24N between 56W and 60W and within 60 nm of 15N57W. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends southwestward from an Azores High across 31N43W to near the southeastern Bahamas. The gradient related to this feature is supporting gentle to moderate with locally fresh northeast to southeast winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft north of 20N between 20W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are over the tropical central Atlantic from 14N to 20N between 42W and 52W. Farther west from 10N to 20N between 52W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to locally moderate northeast to east winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present there. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh with locally strong north to northeast winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are over the waters north of 15N between the Africa coast and 20W. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are near the Cabo Verde Islands north of 15N between 20W and 42W. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal westerly winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, relatively weak high pressure over the area will change little through the weekend as a stationary front persists offshore northeast FLorida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to remain quite active near the front through the weekend. High pressure will build over the eastern United States starting late Sun allowing for the front to shift southward some as a cold front through Mon night. $$ Aguirre