000 AXNT20 KNHC 051800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Sep 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W/34W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Any nearby deep convective precipitation also is close to the monsoon trough. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W, from 20N southward, moving westward 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate to strong is from 14N to 18N between 47W and 50W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 16N to 23N between 57W and 63W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 600 nm on either side of the tropical wave. It is possible that the environmental conditions may become more conducive for some slow development, by early next week. The movement for this feature is forecast to be toward the WNW in the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W, from 20N southward, moving westward at about 15 kt. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in clusters is from 14N to 21N between 80W and 85W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 360 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and within 420 nm to the west of the tropical wave. Significant development appears to be unlikely before the system reaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula by early Friday. Some development is possible, late in the weekend into early next week, after the system enters the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Senegal near 15N17W, along 14N/15N to 29W, to 13N40W and 13N48W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean from 25N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through 30N82W in north central Florida, to a middle Texas Gulf coast 1010 mb low pressure center. The front continues toward the Deep South of Texas. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, in general, is to the NW of the line that runs from 26N at the Florida west coast, to the central Gulf, to the SW corner near 18N94W at the coast of Mexico. The comparatively greatest concentration of precipitation is scattered moderate to widely scattered strong from 24N northward from 88W westward. Fresh NE to E winds are from the stationary front northward between the Florida Panhandle and SE Louisiana; and for 160 nm toward the northwest from NW Cuba. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. Slight seas are everywhere. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over the N Gulf of Mexico for the next couple of days in association with a stationary frontal boundary. A reinforcing cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf tomorrow afternoon, reach from the Florida panhandle to the SW Gulf by Sat afternoon, and become stationary from the Big Bend of Florida to the central Gulf and to the SW Gulf late Sun into Mon. The front will be followed by fresh to strong NE winds, except for possible strong to near gale N to NW winds offshore Veracruz Sat through Mon night. Looking ahead, a tropical wave currently located over the W Caribbean Sea may show some development late in the weekend into early next week after the system emerges over the SW Gulf of Mexico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough is along 11N66W 11N74W 10N80W, through the northern sections of Costa Rica, and into the Pacific Ocean. Any nearby precipitation also is related to the 82W tropical wave. Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and moderate to near-rough seas, are in the central one-third of the area. Fresh to moderate NE to E winds are in the NW corner of the area. Moderate or slower winds are in the eastern one-third of the area, and in the SW corner of the area. Moderate seas are from 70W eastward. Slight to moderate seas are from 80W westward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 05/1200 UTC, are: 0.15 in Montego Bay in Jamaica; 0.11 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands; and 0.07 in Monterrey in Mexico. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. An 82W W Caribbean Sea tropical is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 15W and west of 80W. This wave, accompanied by by fresh to strong trades, will exit the basin tomorrow. Fresh to strong trades will also continue over the S central Caribbean and through the Windward Passage tonight before diminishing tomorrow. Elsewhere, a rather weak pressure gradient will allow for generally gentle to moderate trades to exist across the basin into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 05/1200 UTC, are: 5.44 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. This precipitation is related to a frontal boundary that is about 165 nm to the north of Bermuda. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 20N northward from 80W eastward. Moderate seas are everywhere. Fresh NE winds are in the area that is bounded by 23N72W 28N57W 26N49W 21N36W 13N38W 15N53W 17N60W 23N72W. Fresh to moderate NE winds are from 25N northward from 23W eastward. Fresh to strong SE winds are from 05N southward between 34W and 46W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A stationary front is passing through 31N75W, to north central Florida along 30N82W, and into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the northwest of the line that runs from the central Bahamas beyond 31N69W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through tomorrow in association with a stationary frontal boundary. Across the SW North Atlantic, winds should otherwise remain gentle to moderate for the next few days due to a weak pressure gradient. Looking ahead, a cold front should emerge off of the SE United States to the waters east of NE Florida Mon with building winds behind it. $$ mt/cl