000 AXNT20 KNHC 052303 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Sep 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands with its axis along 35W from 07N to 20N. It is moving westward around 10 kt. This wave is producing limited shower activity. Development is not expected through this weekend while the system moves little. Some slow development appears possible early next week when the disturbance begins moving slowly northwestward. A second tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Its axis along 55W from 07N to 20N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Strong upper-level winds are expected to inhibit development of this system during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward. By early next week, environmental conditions could become more conducive for some slow development while the system moves over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 84W and extends southward in the EPAC region. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. This wave is generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. This convective activity remains disorganized. Development is not expected before the system reaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula by early Friday. Some gradual development is possible late in the weekend into early next week after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information about these systems. All of them have a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Senegal near 14N17W, and extends westward to 13N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 38W and 44W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front stretches west-southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area across SE Louisiana to low pressure of 1010 mb off the middle Texas coast near 28N95W. A trough extends from the low center to near Tuxpan, Mexico. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted near the frontal boundary, and across most of the western Gulf. Recent scatterometer data indicate the cyclonic circulation associated with the low center. Fresh to strong winds are noted within about 60 nm W semicircle and within 120 nm NE quadrant of low center. Seas are generally 2 to 4 ft across the basin. For the forecast, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over the N Gulf of Mexico for the next days in association with a weak low near 28N96W and a stationary frontal boundary. A reinforcing cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf tomorrow afternoon, reach from the Florida panhandle to the SW Gulf by Sat afternoon, and become stationary from the Big Bend of Florida to the central Gulf and to the SW Gulf late Sun into Mon. Winds over the NW Gulf are expected to reach to a NE gale from Sat morning through Sat night with rapidly building seas. Elsewhere, the front will be followed by fresh to strong NE winds, except for possible near gale to gale N to NW winds offshore Veracruz Sat night through Mon night. Looking ahead, conditions across the entire Gulf should improve by Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is along 84W. Please, refer to the Tropical Waves section for more details. Fresh to strong trade winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are present across the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the NW Caribbean in association with the above mentioned tropical wave. Moderate to locally fresh winds are in the Windward Passage with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are near the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast, the tropical wave accompanied by fresh to strong trades will exit the basin tomorrow. Fresh to strong trades will also continue over the S central Caribbean and through the Windward Passage tonight before diminishing tomorrow. Elsewhere, a rather weak pressure gradient will allow for generally gentle to moderate trades to exist across the basin into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends southwestward from a 1014 mb low pressure located N of the forecast region near 34N70W to inland northern Florida. Showers and thunderstorms are along the frontal boundary, more concentrated over N and central Florida. Scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are seen near the Leeward Islands. An upper-level low spinning near the northern Leeward Islands is helping to induce this convective activity. Otherwise, a surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1028 mb high pressure located N of the Azores to near the southeastern Bahamas. The pressure gradient related to this feature is supporting gentle to moderate winds across much of the Atlantic forecast waters with moderate seas. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are near the Canary Islands while moderate to locally fresh E winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted near the northern end of the tropical wave with axis along 55W, particularly from 20N to 25N between 50W and 60W. An area of rough seas in N swell is from 15N to 20N E of 20W reaching the coastal waters of Mauritania and northern Senegal. For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through tomorrow in association with a stationary frontal boundary offshore of the Florida-Georgia border. Across the SW North Atlantic waters, winds should otherwise remain gentle to moderate for the next few days due to a weak pressure gradient. Looking ahead, a cold front should emerge off of the SE United States to the waters east of NE Florida Mon with increasing winds behind it. $$ GR