000 AXNT20 KNHC 060450 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Sep 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed with its axis along 38W from 07N to 20N. It is moving westward around 20 kt. This wave is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 11N to 15N between 34W and 40W. Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the early part of next week while the disturbance moves slowly northwestward or northward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. A second tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Its axis is along 57W from 07N to 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 14N to 22N between 51W and 61W. Development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds while the system moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 kt during the next several days. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W and extends southward across Central America into the EPAC region. It is moving westward at about 20 kt. This wave is generating scattered to numerous moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras, generally south of 23N and west of 79W. Development is not expected before the system reaches Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula. Some slow development is possible later this weekend after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information about these systems. All of them have a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W, and extends west-southwestward to 13N48W. The ITCZ then continues from 13N48W to near 15N54W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 250 nm of the monsoon trough axis between 29W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front stretches west-southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area across the northern Gulf to low pressure of 1009 mb off the middle Texas coast near 28N95W. A trough extends from the low center to near Tuxpan, Mexico. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated moderate convection are noted near the frontal boundary, and across most of the northern and western Gulf. Another area of scattered moderate convection is moving westward from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong winds are noted within about 60 nm W semicircle of low center. Winds across the rest of the Gulf are generally moderate to fresh and from the east. Seas are 2 to 4 ft across the basin. For the forecast, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over the N Gulf of Mexico for the next days in association with a weak low near 28N95W and a stationary frontal boundary. A reinforcing cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Fri, reach from the Florida Panhandle to the SW Gulf by Sat afternoon, and become stationary from the Big Bend of Florida to the central Gulf and to the SW Gulf late Sun into Mon. Winds over the NW Gulf are expected to reach to a NE gale from Sat morning through Sat evening with rapidly building seas. Elsewhere, the front will be followed by fresh to strong NE winds, except for possible near gale to gale N to NW winds offshore Veracruz Sun and Sun night. Looking ahead, conditions across the entire Gulf should improve Tue and Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection in the western Caribbean. Some scattered moderate convection is entering the NW Caribbean from off the southern coast of Cuba. Outside of convection, moderate to fresh trade winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are present across the central and NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft are analyzed across the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, the tropical wave over the W Caribbean near 86W will continue to cause scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 13W and W of 79W. This wave, accompanied by by fresh to locally strong trades, will exit the basin tomorrow. Fresh to strong trades will also continue over the S central Caribbean and through the Windward Passage tonight before diminishing Fri. Elsewhere, a rather weak pressure gradient will allow for generally gentle to moderate trades to exist across the basin into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends southwestward from a 1011 mb low pressure located near 34N70W to inland northern Florida. Scattered showers and isolated moderate convection are observed along and within 150 nm south of the front. Otherwise, the 1028 mb Bermuda- Azores high continues to maintain a weak pressure gradient across most of the Atlantic, supporting gentle to moderate winds across much of the Atlantic forecast waters. Moderate to fresh, locally strong E winds are analyzed via scatterometer data behind the tropical wave near 57W. Another area of moderate to fresh, locally strong NW to W winds is also seen on scatterometer near the African coast from 08N to 21N, generally east of 21W. Moderate seas also continue across much of the Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through Fri in association with a stationary frontal boundary offshore of the Florida-Georgia border, with fresh NE winds W of the front. Across the SW North Atlantic waters, winds should otherwise remain gentle to moderate for the next few days due to a weak pressure gradient. Looking ahead, a cold front should emerge off of the SE United States to the waters east of NE Florida Mon with increasing winds and building seas behind it. $$ Adams