000 AXNT20 KNHC 060810 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Sep 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from northern Florida to the NE Gulf near 29.5N83.5W to 1009 mb low pressure near 27.5N95.5W with a trough extending S of the low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the front and low with fresh to strong N to NE winds in the Texas coastal waters NW of the low per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas are currently to 7 ft near these winds. A reinforcing cold front is forecast to move off the Texas coast later today with increasing winds behind it and the low pressure area deepening slightly. Winds are forecast to increase to gale force N of 26N and W of 93W Sat morning through Sat night with seas building to 8 to 14 ft. A prolonged fetch of northerly winds will spread very large seas across much of the waters W of 94W through the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean near 40W from 20N southward, moving quickly westward around 20 kt. This wave is producing scattered moderate convection from 12N to 14N between 38W and 42W. Development, if any, should be slow to occur during the early part of next week while the disturbance moves slowly northwestward or northward over the eastern tropical Atlantic. A tropical wave is approaching the Lesser Antilles, currently analyzed near 58W/59W from 20N southward, moving westward at around 15 kt. The wave is producing moderate convection from 13N to 20N between 56W and 59W, and from 20N to 23N between 59W and 63W. A tropical wave has reached the Caribbean coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near 87.5W from 21N southward across the Gulf of Honduras and western Honduras, continuing into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is being produced from 16N to 21N between 85W and 90W, as well as from 11N to 19N between 79W and 84W, enhanced by the extension of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough across the SW Caribbean. Some slow development is possible later this weekend after the system emerges over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information on the above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Mauritania near 17.5N16W, and extends west-southwestward to 13N40W to 13.5N50W. The ITCZ then continues from 13.5N50W to near 15N57W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 240 nm of the monsoon trough axis between 28W and 57W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on a developing Gale Warning in the NW Gulf of Mexico associated with a stationary front and low pressure area. Elsewhere across the Gulf, moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are in the coastal waters from the Florida Panhandle to south- central Louisiana. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the basin. Seas are mainly 2 to 4 ft south-southeast of the low and front, except higher near the Yucatan Channel in SE swell. For the forecast, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue over the N Gulf of Mexico for the next few days in association with the low and stationary frontal boundary. A reinforcing cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf later today, reach from the Florida panhandle to the SW Gulf by Sat afternoon, and become stationary from the Big Bend of Florida to the central Gulf and to the SW Gulf late Sun into Mon. Winds over the NW Gulf are expected to reach to a NE gale from Sat morning through Sat evening with rapidly building seas. Elsewhere, the front will be followed by fresh to strong NE winds, except for possible near gale to gale NW to N winds offshore Veracruz Sun into Sun night. Conditions may start to improve across the basin by mid-week. For the forecast, ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information on convection in the western Caribbean. Elsewhere, fresh winds are in the S-central Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the SW Caribbean S of 11N, in the Lee of Cuba, and also in the eastern Caribbean E of 68W, and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the tropical wave moving across portions of Central America northward to the Gulf of Honduras and near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula will continue to support showers and thunderstorms N of 12N and W of 79W through at least tonight. This wave, accompanied by by fresh to strong trades, will exit the basin completely later today. Fresh trades will continue over the S central Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds may pulse offshore eastern Honduras beginning Sun night. Elsewhere, a rather weak pressure gradient will allow for generally gentle to moderate trades to exist across the basin into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Tropical Wave and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for details on associated convection in the Atlantic. A stationary front extends southwestward from a 1009 mb low pressure area near 34.5N69.5W or about a few hundred nautical miles east of North Carolina, through 31N77W to the coast of Florida near 30N81W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are N of 27.5N and W of 77W. A belt of moderate to fresh trades is from 13N/14N to 25N between 35W and 65W between ridging near and N of 31N and the two tropical waves. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this area. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail across the remainder of the waters, except locally fresh winds near the coast of Mauritania. Higher seas, 7 to 10 ft, are noted NE of the Canary Islands to the Iberian Peninsula, and from 10N to 20N between the coast of Africa and the eastern Cabo Verde Islands. For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue today in association with a stationary frontal boundary offshore of the Florida-Georgia border, with fresh NE winds W of the front. Across the SW North Atlantic waters, winds should otherwise remain gentle to moderate for the next few days due to a weak pressure gradient. Looking ahead, a cold front should emerge off of the SE United States to the waters east of NE Florida Mon with increasing winds and building seas behind it, with the front stalling through the early part of the week. $$ Lewitsky