000 AXNT20 KNHC 062343 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Sep 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front remains draped across the northern Gulf to a 1007 mb low near 27N95W with a trough extending south of the low. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the front, low and trough. Winds of 25-30 kt are occurring in the NW Gulf. Gusts to gale force are likely in the strongest convection, and accompanying seas are 6-7 ft. A reinforcing cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf tonight into Sat, reach from the Florida panhandle to the SW Gulf by Sat afternoon, and become stationary from the Big Bend of Florida to the central Gulf and to the SW Gulf late Sun into Mon. Winds over the NW Gulf are expected to reach to a NE gale from Sat morning through Sat night with rapidly building seas to 10-16 ft. Elsewhere, the front will be followed by fresh to strong NE winds, except for possible gale NW to N winds offshore Veracruz Sun into Mon. A prolonged fetch of N winds will spread very large seas across much of the waters W of 94W through the weekend. Conditions will start to improve across the basin early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is along 41W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 11N to 14N and between 35W and 42W. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 58W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. An upper level low located north of the Leeward Islands is interacting with the wave axis, helping to produce scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 16N to 23N and between 54W and 59W. The storm activity will affect the Leeward Islands and eastern Greater Antilles over the next few days as the wave moves westward. The tropical wave over the Yucatan peninsula is along 89W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is affecting southern portions of the Bay of Campeche. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues westward to 11N43W and to 13N49W. The ITCZ extends from 13N49W to 17N56W. Please read the Tropical Waves section for information on convection near the monsoon trough/ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on a developing Gale Warning in the NW Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere across the Gulf, the weak pressure gradient is resulting in moderate to locally fresh S winds and seas of 2-5 ft. For the forecast, scattered to numerous heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue over the far western and northern Gulf of Mexico for the next few days in association with a 1007 mb low near 27N95W and a stationary frontal boundary that extends from the low along the northern Gulf into northern Florida. Looking ahead, tropical development will be possible across southwest portions of the Gulf during the early or middle part of next week while the wave interacts with a frontal boundary and slowly moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more information on the above. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough enters the Caribbean Sea through the coast of Nicaragua to northern Colombia. Abundant tropical moisture is interacting with the aforementioned monsoon trough producing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection in the SW Caribbean, especially south of 16N and west of 76W. The strongest convection is producing gusts to near gale force. Generally dry weather conditions are found elsewhere in the basin. A broad subtropical ridge extends into the Caribbean Sea, supporting moderate to locally fresh E trade winds north of 12N and west of 65W. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle easterly breezes and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a tropical wave moving across the Yucatan Peninsula into the E Pacific offshore waters will continue to support heavy showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean S of 20N through at least early Sat. This wave, followed by moderate to fresh E to SE winds, will exit Central America early Sat morning. Heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the E extension of the Pacific monsoon trough will continue to affect the SW basin also through Sat. Moderate to fresh trades will continue over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds may pulse offshore Honduras Sun night into early Mon. Elsewhere, a rather weak pressure gradient will allow for generally gentle to moderate trades to exist into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from an intensifying storm in the NW Atlantic to NE Florida, resulting in scattered showers across the waters off NE Florida. Farther southeast, a large upper level low is found north of the Leeward Islands producing a few showers south of 25N and between 60W and 67W. The rest of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned just north of the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh E winds prevail over much of the basin, supporting seas of 4-7 ft. However, a tighter pressure gradient in the NE Atlantic allows for fresh to locally strong northerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft off of Morocco. For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue this weekend in association with a stationary frontal boundary offshore of the Florida-Georgia border. Across the SW North Atlantic waters, winds should otherwise remain gentle to moderate for the next few days due to a weak pressure gradient. Looking ahead, a cold front should emerge off of the SE United States to the waters east of NE Florida Mon with increasing winds and building seas behind it. Afterward, the front is forecast to stall through Tue. Elsewhere, an elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern and central Atlantic will become more concentrated over the next couple of days. Any development of this system should be slow to occur while the disturbance meanders through the early part of next week and then begins to move west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during the middle to latter part of next week. $$ ADAMS