000 AXNT20 KNHC 070558 AAA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Sep 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Wave Over the Yucatan Peninsula: A tropical wave is currently located over the Yucatan Peninsula, with axis along 90W from 21.5N southward across far southeastern Mexico and Guatemala into the Eastern Pacific near 08N90W. The wave is moving WNW at around 10 kt. Scattered strong convection is occurring over the Bay of Campeche out ahead of this wave, up to 230 nm west of the wave axis. This wave has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front extending from N-central Florida across the northern Gulf to a 1006 mb surface low near 27.5N94.5W supports scattered showers and thunderstorms near these features. Isolated moderate to strong convection is occurring in the immediate vicinity of the surface low. Winds of 25 to 30 kt are occurring across the NW Gulf, with locally higher winds associated with convection in the NW quadrant of the surface low, along with seas of 5 to 8 ft across much of the far western Gulf. The front and low will get reinforced by a cold front tonight with winds increasing over the NW Gulf, W-central Gulf and SW Gulf. Winds over the NW Gulf are expected to reach to a NE gale from Sat morning through Sun morning with rapidly building seas to 9-15 ft. A gale warning is in effect for frequent gusts in the NW Gulf and W-central Sat through Sun morning, with a gale warning for sustained winds in effect offshore Veracruz, Mexico Sun through at least Sun night. Very large seas will build across these areas through early next week while the boundaries meander. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the wave entering the southwestern Gulf/Bay of Campeche. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 59W, from 21N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. An upper level low located well north of the Leeward Islands is interacting with the wave axis, helping to produce scattered moderate convection from 14N to 20N between 54W and 60W. The storm activity will affect the Leeward Islands and eastern Greater Antilles over the next few days as the wave moves westward. The tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula is along 90W from 21.5N southward, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is affecting southern portions of the Bay of Campeche. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa near 12N16W and continues west-northwestward to 14N25W and then westward to 13N50W. The ITCZ then extends from 13N50W to 15.5N56.5W. In addition to convection associated with the wave along 42W, scattered moderate convection is developing generally along and within 250 nm of the monsoon trough axis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning and stationary front in the NW Gulf of Mexico, and refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on convection in the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere across the Gulf, the weak pressure gradient is resulting in moderate to locally fresh S winds and seas of 2-5 ft. For the forecast, the stationary front extending from N-central Florida across the northern Gulf and the 1006 mb low pressure near 27.5N94.5W will both get reinforced by a cold front tonight with winds increasing over the NW Gulf, W-central Gulf and SW Gulf. A gale warning is in effect for frequent gusts in the NW Gulf and W-central Sat through Sun morning, with a gale warning for sustained winds in effect offshore Veracruz, Mexico Sun through at least Sun night. Very large seas will build across these areas through early next week while the boundaries meander. Meanwhile, a tropical wave is forecast to move over the Bay of Campeche Sat, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward over the SW Gulf of Mexico. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail SE of the features. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough enters the Caribbean Sea through the coast of Costa Rica to northern Colombia. Abundant tropical moisture is interacting with the aforementioned monsoon trough producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in the SW Caribbean, especially south of 16N and west of 75W. Scattered moderate convection is also developing along a line from the Yucatan Channel across Cuba, the Windward Passage, and Hispaniola and then propagating southward into the central and western Caribbean generally north of 17N and west of 72W. A broad subtropical ridge extends into the Caribbean Sea, supporting gentle to moderate E trade winds across much of the basin, with the exception of the Windward Passage where moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring per recent scatterometer data. Seas across much of the Caribbean are 2 to 5 ft. For the forecast, heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the E extension of the Pacific monsoon trough will continue to affect the SW basin through at least Sat night. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles Sat, then through the Caribbean into early next week with locally squally weather. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the S-central Caribbean and offshore eastern Honduras, locally strong there Sun evening. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from an intensifying storm in the NW Atlantic to NE Florida, resulting in scattered moderate convection across the waters off NE Florida north of 28N and west of 77W. Farther southeast, a large upper level low is found north of the Leeward Islands producing a few showers south of 25N and between 53W and 66W. The rest of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned just north of the Azores. Gentle to moderate E winds prevail over much of the basin, supporting seas of 4-7 ft. However, per recent scatterometer data, an area of moderate to fresh E winds is occurring north of the Lesser Antilles from 18N to 23N between 55W and 65W, likely associated with the tropical wave passing through the region. For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through at least tonight in association with a stationary front offshore of the Florida- Georgia border. Winds may be locally fresh SE of the boundary. Across the remainder SW North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate, except S of 25N and E of the Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast through Sat night. Looking ahead, a cold front should emerge off of the SE United States to the waters E of NE Florida late Mon into Tue with increasing winds and building seas behind it. Afterward, the front is forecast to stall near 30N through the middle of the week. $$ Adams