000 AXNT20 KNHC 070916 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Sep 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Wave Over the Yucatan Peninsula: A tropical wave is currently located near the SW Gulf coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, with axis along 91W from 22N southward across far southeastern Mexico and portions of western Guatemala into the Eastern Pacific near 14N91W. The wave is moving WNW at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is occurring over the Bay of Campeche out ahead of this wave, up to 210 nm W of the wave axis. This wave has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A stationary front extending from N-central Florida to across the northern Gulf to 1004 mb low pressure near 27N94W supports scattered showers and thunderstorms near these features. The front and low will get reinforced by a cold front today with winds increasing over the NW Gulf, W-central Gulf and SW Gulf. A gale warning is in effect for frequent gusts in the NW Gulf and W-central through Sun morning, with a gale warning for sustained winds in effect offshore Veracruz, Mexico late tonight through at least Sun night. Very large seas will build across these areas through early next week while the boundaries meander, rapidly building to 9-15 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the wave entering the southwestern Gulf/Bay of Campeche. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is along 42W/42W, from 20N southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A tropical wave in the Tropical N Atlantic is along 60W, from 22N southward to Guyana, moving westward at around 10 kt. An upper level low located well north of the Leeward Islands is interacting with the wave axis, helping to produce widely scattered moderate convection from 12.5N to 25N between 54W and 61W. This weather activity will affect the Leeward Islands and eastern Greater Antilles over the next few days as the wave moves westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the west coast of Africa near 13N17W and continues west-northwestward to 14N27W and then west-southwestward to 12N49W. The ITCZ then extends from 12N49W to 14N56W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm south of the monsoon trough between Africa and 41W, and within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between 27W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in the NW Gulf associated with low pressure along a stationary front, and for details on a Tropical Wave in the process of emerging in the Bay of Campeche from the Yucatan Peninsula with a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation. Elsewhere across the Gulf, the weak pressure gradient is resulting in gentle to moderate mainly SE to S winds, locally fresh SE of the low and also near the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are 2 to 5 ft SE of the front. For the forecast, other than the gale warnings and low pressure area, as well as the tropical wave with tropical cyclone formation potential, mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail SE of the features. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough enters the Caribbean Sea through the coast of Costa Rica to northern Colombia. Abundant tropical moisture is interacting with the aforementioned monsoon trough producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection in the SW Caribbean, especially S of 16N and west of 77W. Scattered moderate convection is also from near the approach to the Windward Passage to between Cuba and Jamaica, and over portions of western Haiti. Similar convection is noted in the Gulf of Honduras. A broad subtropical ridge extends into the Caribbean Sea, supporting moderate to locally fresh winds in the Central Caribbean and in the NW Caribbean N of the Gulf of Honduras, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere in the basin. Seas across the Caribbean are 2 to 5 ft. For the forecast, heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the E extension of the Pacific monsoon trough will continue to affect the SW basin through at least tonight. A tropical wave will move across the Lesser Antilles today, then through the Caribbean into early next week with locally squally weather. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the S-central Caribbean and offshore eastern Honduras, locally strong there Sun evening. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from an intensifying storm in the NW Atlantic to NE Florida, resulting in scattered moderate convection across the waters off NE Florida N of 28N and W of 77W. Fresh SW winds are near 31N between 77W and 80W. Farther southeast, a large upper level low is found N of the Leeward Islands producing a few showers S of 25N and between 57W and 66W. The rest of the basin is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned just north of the Azores. Fresh winds are noted near a tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles from 17N to 22N between 55W and 65W, with seas of 6 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through at least today in association with a stationary front offshore of the Florida-Georgia border. Winds may be locally fresh SE of the boundary with gale conditions N of 31N. Across the remainder SW North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate, except S of 25N and E of the Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast through tonight. Looking ahead, a cold front should emerge off of the SE United States to the waters E of NE Florida late Mon into Tue with increasing winds and building seas behind it. Afterward, the front is forecast to stall near 30N/31N through the middle of the week. $$ Lewitsky