000 AXNT20 KNHC 071755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Sep 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Wave Over the Yucatan Peninsula: A tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche along 92W, south of 23N, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Scattered moderate convection is from 18N to 20N between 91W and 94W, including inland over Mexico. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop while the wave interacts with a frontal boundary during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly northwestward to northward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. This wave has a MEDIUM chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 1500 UTC, a stationary front extends from 29N83W near Cedar Key, FL, to 1004 mb low pressure centered in the NW Gulf near 27N94W. A recently formed stationary front extends south and west from the low to the coast of Veracruz, Mexico near 20N97W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 18N to 25N between 94W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection is from 26N to 29N between 87W and 94W. N to NE winds of 20-30 kt, with frequent gusts to 40 kt, and 8-11 ft seas are ongoing in the NW Gulf waters. A reinforcing cold front will move off the Texas Gulf Coast this afternoon, increasing the area of high winds across the western Gulf and building seas to 9-13 ft. Sustained gale force winds are forecast to begin offshore Veracruz, Mexico late tonight and continue through at least Sun night. Very large seas will build to 9-15 ft across these areas through early next week while the frontal system lingers in the Gulf waters. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche. A tropical wave in the central Atlantic is nearly stationary along 42W, from 19N southward. 1012 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 12N42W. Convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A tropical wave in the Tropical N Atlantic is along 62W, from 22N southward to eastern Venezuela, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted in the vicinity of the Lesser Antilles. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Monsoon Trough enters the Atlantic just south of Dakar, Senegal, near 14N17W and continues through aforementioned low pressure near 12N42W to 12N49W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 31W and 45W. No segments of the ITCZ are analyzed at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a TROPICAL WAVE in the Bay of Campeche and an ongoing GALE WARNING. East of 90W, away from the influence of the GALE WARNING and TROPICAL WAVE, gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, aside from the waters impacted by all of the SPECIAL FEATURES, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the TROPICAL WAVES section for information on a TROPICAL WAVE in the E Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection, likely enhanced by the East Pacific Monsoon Trough, is noted in the SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 14N between 75W and 83W. A weak subtropical ridge allows for mainly light to gentle trades across the Caribbean, with 3-5 ft seas. Satellite scatterometer data from this morning indicates trades are reaching moderate speeds in the central Caribbean. For the forecast, heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with the E extension of the Pacific monsoon trough will continue to affect the SW basin through this evening. A tropical wave moving across the Lesser Antilles will reach Hispaniola by Sun evening and then continue to move across the central and western Caribbean through mid week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the S-central Caribbean and offshore eastern Honduras, locally strong there Sun evening. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from an intensifying low pressure in the NW Atlantic to NE Florida, resulting in scattered showers in the far NW discussion waters. The remainder of the Atlantic is characterized by a weak subtropical ridge, which allows for only light to gentle trades and 4-6 ft seas across the basin. Trades may reach locally moderate speeds north of the Leeward Islands. For the forecast W of 55W, scattered showers will continue across the northern and central Florida offshore waters through this evening in association with a stationary front across northern Florida. Winds may be locally fresh SE of the boundary with gale conditions N of 31N. Across the remainder SW North Atlantic waters, winds should remain gentle to moderate, except S of 25N and E of the Bahamas where moderate to locally fresh winds are forecast through tonight. Looking ahead, a cold front should emerge off of the SE United States to the waters E of NE Florida late Mon into Tue with increasing winds and building seas behind it. Afterward, the front is forecast to stall near 30N/31N through the middle of the week. $$ Mahoney